The only predictable thing about the presidency of Donald John Trump is that it will be unpredictable. The 45th President of the United States divides opinion like no other politician.
He started his administration today with the lowest-ever approval ratings for an incoming president.
According to a poll by NBC News/Wall Street Journal, 52 per cent of those quizzed say they disapprove of the way he has handled his transition and preparations for the presidency.
That compares with Barack Obama’s approval rating of 71 per cent before he took office in 2009, and Bill Clinton’s rating of 77 per cent in 1992.
Even as he made his final preparations this week for his inauguration ceremony, he was hit with a lawsuit from a woman alleging she had been sexually assaulted by him.
Despite mistrust and continued disbelief of his presidency at home and abroad, many economists and business leaders around the world expect him to have a positive effect on the US economy.
The Dollar has surged in value and investors around the globe are keenly waiting to hear his first policy statement.
Nowhere more so than on this side of the Atlantic.
His warm words in favour of Britain and in support of our decision to divorce from Europe have come as a relief and a welcome prop during turbulent times.
It is hoped that he will encourage American industry and individuals to forge links and do business with Britain, but how could that affect Cumbria?
Carlisle Brass managing director Rachel Attwood has seen how the Trump presidency has already affected her company.
The parent group includes an American-based arm.
Rachel Attwood Mrs Attwood said: “One part of our group has had a shocking time with the US economy, but in the past six months,they have had the wind at their back and things are very positive over there for the American economy.
“Our colleagues are buoyant and all the indications are that the US economy will start to grow again.
“That will strengthen the dollar against sterling which will not help us.”
Like most international businesses, Carlisle Brass trades in dollars for buying its raw materials and then selling its finished products.
As a result of the weakening of sterling and strengthening of the dollar in recent months, the company has imposed a 20 per cent surcharge on prices.
Mrs Attwood sees costs generally rising in the UK over the next two years.
She explained: “Growth will come rapidly for the US, but it will be poor for us.
“I worry that austerity will hit us. Food prices and petrol prices will rise.
“We have had to impose a 20 per cent surcharge which is hard to do and will affect sales.
“But we are not the only ones. I can’t see that the currency changes will not be passed down to the consumer. It will only get harder.
“We just need to get more efficient and we can all do that better in Cumbria.”
Those currency fluctuations are not bad for every section of our economy.
The Lake District Hotels Association represents 40 hotels in the county.
They employ more than 2,000 workers and say they contribute £459m to the county economy annually.
Peter Sloyan Spokesman Peter Sloyan can see how President Trump’s Anglophile support of Britain will help attract more American holidaymakers to our shores.
And any further devaluation of sterling will make holidaying here more attractive to foreigners and encourage more of us to holiday at home.
He reasoned: “President Obama seemed to have more of a European view than a British view.
“Mr Trump has two hotels in Scotland and other businesses over here and he will speak warmly of the UK which will help us.
“And the volatility of the currency will help because we have been perceived as expensive in the past.”
But Mr Sloyan can see one serious negative to the Trump presidency: “The downside to a Trump administration is his views on climate change.
“He does not believe in global warming and given what happened to us in December 2015, we would not want to see any policy decisions in the US that would make that worse or more likely to reoccur.
“If he could modify his thinking on global warming, that would be a positive for us.”
Graham Haywood Graham Haywood, director of the Cumbria Local Enterprise Partnership, agrees: “The fact that he is signalling that he sees Britain as a stronger ally than Europe could be a help.”
The LEP has been in talks with a group of US companies over the past six months.
They are keen to move into Cumbria – but are concerned about the effects of Brexit.
“In terms of selling Cumbria as a pitch for a number of inward investors, they are happy with the location, but they are concerned about the macro economics,” he said.
“We have been in talks with companies involved in the manufacture of automative and hi-tech equipment and they would want to make in this country.
“But they want to be able to export without too many restrictions.
“We have also been speaking with a German investor involved in production and food processing.
“They want a plant to service the UK but also want to ship some product back into Europe.
“I think Brexit and the uncertainty surrounding it means that a number of companies are waiting to see how it pans out before making any decisions.”
Former Ukip leader Nigel Farage was one of the few British politicians to back Trump during his Presidential campaign.
Cumbria MEP and new leader of Ukip Paul Nuttall believes a Trump presidency will have a positive effect on Britain and the county.
Paul Nuttall “He is an Anglophile and the most important thing he said is that Britain will be at the front of any trade deals to be done and that it will be done quickly,” he remarked.
“He wants to make Brexit work.”
Mr Nuttall is also relaxed about the fall in the value of the pound: “Some argue that the pound was too strong anyway and needed to be pegged.
“The main thing is that the economy has not fallen off a cliff as the doom-sayers predicted it would with a Brexit vote.
“What we are seeing is that we have the fastest-growing economy among the G7 group of nations, unemployment is very low and we have a lot to be happy about.”
That positive approach is starting to be picked up by British businesses who recognise that things could change rapidly in the coming months.
Mrs Attwood added: “I was surprised when he won. I do think he is very different and very different might not be too bad.
“With him having control of the Senate, he might get stuff moving.”
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