What now for Brexit Cumbria?

Since last week’s vote by more than 37 million, resulting in the decision for Britons to quit the EU, there has been turmoil on the stock market, sterling has dropped and international companies have questioned the future of the UK.

All but one of Cumbria’s six districts voted to leave the EU. Only South Lakes stood apart.

What does the overall result mean for the county and what does the way local votes were cast say about us?

The county’s farmers are bracing themselves.

The National Farmers’ Union is holding an emergency meeting of its governing body to discuss how leaving the European Union will affect farming.

According to the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, around £89m in farm subsidies came into Cumbria in 2014.

So far nearly £74m in farm payments have been made for 2015, although some farmers have yet to receive this.

Farmers are expecting some of the money saved in EU payments will be directed their way to cover the subsidies.

County union representative Alistair Mackintosh says: “I think we all recognise that some sort of support has to go towards agriculture, particularly in the short-term. To turn the tap off completely now would be devastating with the industry in crisis.”

Business bosses say it is still too early to predict how the referendum result will affect the county.

For them it is a wait and see situation, depending on how trade talks go with the EU and other nations in the coming months.

Good news for the county was provided in the shape of reassurances over the continued development of the Moorside nuclear power station.

Bosses at Nugen say the £20bn project remains on track.

And tourism in Cumbria could see big benefits from being outside the EU.

Eric Robson, the chairman of Cumbria Tourism, says it’s a case of maintaining a warm welcome and an open door.

He reasons: “We have to be optimistic. It is the way we have always conducted our business, which is why we are putting £2.6bn into the Cumbrian economy,

“We have every intention to continue to make it a valued and an attractive destination.”

North West MEP and deputy leader of Ukip, Paul Nuttall says Cumbrians voted to quit the EU because they wanted to “take back control of their own destiny, borders, law and money” .

He says: “We are going to feel a little bit of short term pain, but it is for long term gain.

“Of course there is going to be a pinch, but in the end, it is the duty of this generation to hand on a country of which we could be proud of to the next generation.

“You can’t put a price on democaracy.”

Craig Johnston Union leader Craig Johnston voted for Brexit, and while he’s uneasy about what happens next, he knows why Cumbrians wanted out.

Concerns over immigration and EU rules were overlaid on a bedrock of disillusion, distrust and disaffection of politics in this country.

He says last week’s vote highlighted the feeling of insecurity and neglect felt in the north.

The Regional Organiser for the north for the RMT Transport Union explains: “Cumbria voted overwhelmingly to leave. I think that shows widespread disaffection with politics in general.

“Even though Cumbria is not affected too much by immigration, it is perceived as an issue.

“I’m a big supporter of immigration, I’m just against free movement of labour. I’ve seen how it has affected workers.

“The EU also has directives that public services have to be privatised and tendered out.

“But one thing playing over all of this is neglect across large swathes of northern England. That is not just a perception, it is reality.

“In Cumbria we have little say in anything and little sway and few of our MPs fight our corner.

“This was an opportunity for everyone, left, right and centre to give the ruling political elite a good kicking.”

Bill Martin Former EU commission official and head of information for the single market Bill Martin predicts tough times ahead for the UK and its negotiators.

Mr Martin, who lives in Cumbria, says: “When I read Boris Johnson saying everything is going to be hunky dory he is shooting a bit of a line.

“Mrs Merkel will be as relaxed as she can be, but there are 27 other nations who might not take her lead.

“There are tensions among all members.

“There has been a shock throughout Europe over the result of the referendum. Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas.

“This is a great shock to the body politic of the EU and there will be consequences.

“There will be tough negotiations and the UK is going to need to send its very best people to pull this one out of the fire to get the best deal.

“Every member state will be looking after its own particular interest during negotiations.”

FARMING:

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Prominent Cumbrian farmer, Alistair Mackintosh, sees the need for shoppers to Buy British will be ever greater once the UK leaves the European Union.

Alistair Mackintosh "Cumbria looks the way it is because farmers invest their farm payments in land management, and they deliver on the environment, and they deliver affordable food. Quite frankly take that funding away and who's going to produce that food," said Mr Mackintosh, National Farmers' Union delegate and remain supporter.

Today the NFU is holding an emergency meeting of its governing body to discuss how leaving the European Union will affect farming.

"We have to get it right. To think over the next two years we are going to change it and be in a fairly different place, the challenges are immense," said Mr Mackintosh.

According to the Defra website around £89m in farm subsidies came into Cumbria in 2014. So far nearly £74m in farm payments have been made for 2015, although some farmers have yet to receive this.

"I think we all recognise that some sort of support has to go towards agriculture particularly in the short-term. To turn the tap off completely now would be devastating with the industry in crisis," said Mr Mackintosh.

"We still have two years, after that the challenge is where is that support going to come from? Access to the market through free trade is going to be critical," he added.

According to NFU president, Meurig Raymond European Union subsidies for British farmers amounted to £2.4bn - £3bn a year, depending on exchange rates, and help keep the sector afloat.

“The average income of a farmer was just over £20,000 in 2014, and 55% of that was EU money, so that’s how important that money is,” said Mr Meurig said.

Julia Aglionby, executive director of the Foundation for Common Land, says Brexit raises serious concerns for the future of the country's iconic common land, including Blencathra and Scafell Pike in the Lake District.

She says support payments represent over 40 per cent of commoners gross farm income.

"Farmers are paid through stewardship schemes to look after our heritage, but uncertainty now surrounds these schemes." she said. Because of this the foundation has called a meeting in September with the aim of helping shape a new post Brexit future for the Uplands.

TOURISM:

The broadcaster says: “No one knows how it will work out. It is the hideous uncertainty of it all..

Eric Robson “But we will carry on, fighting the good fight for Cumbria, attracting business from emerging tourism economies such as China and India.”

Whatever political or economic changes the country undergoes, Cumbria will always have the fells and lakes as its major attraction.

Mr Robson adds: “What happens to the tourism economy depends on whether we become more affordable or less.

“We have to be optimistic. It is the way we have always conducted our business, which is why we are putting £2.6bn into the Cumbrian economy,

“We have every intention to continue to make it a valued and an attractive destination.”

It is estimated that half the hotel workers in the Lake District are from abroad.

There are fears that ending freedom of movement will cause staffing issues, though some hoteliers say that could be made up by taking on seasonal staff from non-EU countries, such as Australia and South Africa.

Mr Robson is keen to counter fears of current staff in the wake of the referendum result.

He says: “There is no suggestion that valued employers of our tourism industry will be put on a bus and sent home.

“What the referendum vote might do is what we saw in the banking crisis upheavals of 2008 and encourage more people to holiday at home.

“We saw a bit of that recently with the uncertainty of the fuel supplies in France.

“The knock-on effect of that was that it encouraged people to stay where they were, knowing what they were getting and what it will cost.

“We have got to carry on doing what we are good at, which is being professional and capturing markets wherever we seem them.

“We have some very dynamic businesses in the tourism sector in Cumbria.”

MANUFACTURING:

There were warnings before the referendum that a Brexit vote would have dire consequences for manufacturing.

Eric Martlew Carlisle's former Labour MP Eric Martlew, predicted that the city's Pirelli tyre factory would close “within five years” of a leave vote and Cumbria County Council leader Stewart Young said the result was "worrying" for firms such as Pirelli.

But the tyre maker, now Chinese owned, moved quickly to calm concerns.

It said: “Higher raw material costs should be offset by sterling devaluation and control of operating costs. On balance, [Brexit] should have little or no impact on our continuing operations in the UK.”

Rob Johnston, chief executive of Cumbria Chamber of Commerce, does not believe that the factory, which employs 750 people, is at risk.

He said: “Pirelli isn't here just because we are in the EU but because we have a high quality, skilled workforce. Will they leave? I'm not convinced that will be the case. The cost of moving the plant to Europe would be phenomenal.”

The weak pound should boost exporters, such as Totalpost Services in Alston, a former Queen's Award winner for international trade. Owner and managing director David Hymers voted for Brexit and was delighted with the referendum result.

He said: “From a business perspective we are extremely resilient in this country. My own business has been planning for an either way vote for the last 24 months.

“I'm not worried by the immediate reactions of the stock exchange or the dollar/pound rate, they will bounce back.”

“As time goes on I am hoping that everybody who voted to remain will accept the verdict that has been given on an extremely high turnout. There are lots of good reasons for the result and people just have to get used to it and move on.”

GlaxoSmithKline, in south Cumbria, saw its share price surge six per cent in the aftermath of the referendum, because it derives much of its earnings from overseas – these are worth more in sterling terms because the pound is weaker.

It said: “Although the result creates uncertainty and potentially complexity, we do not anticipate a material adverse impact on the business, group’s results or financial position.”

INFRASTRUCTURE:

Graham Haywood, director of Cumbria Local Economic Partnership which has just published an infrastructure plan for the county, thinks it is too soon to say what the effects will be.

Graham Haywood He said: “In our infrastructure plan we identified six or seven priority schemes, all of them are UK funded, assuming that they are funded. We were not looking for EU money towards them.”

These priorities included upgrades to the county's roads – such as a Carlisle southern link road – development of the coastal railway line and improvements at Carlisle Airport.

“They were all subject to getting UK Government funding,” Mr Haywood said. “If the Government had to reduce their overall spending plans because of economic difficulties, then clearly it would make implementing the plan more difficult.

“It could take another direction in that, once we have actually exited, potentially there would be more money available because the UK money that was going to the EU would be staying.

"In that sense there might actually be an opportunity.”

Cumbria has benefited substantially from EU structural funds, including recent initiatives such as the Business Start up Support programme.

Mr Haywood said the funding was “very important” but also “very prescriptive”.

He added: “The north has done pretty well from EU funding. If EU funding goes and it is all UK funding, then there is more for us to bid against.”

He also says there needs to be clarity on what will happen to the £73m of EU funding already allocated to projects in the county.

Keith Little, Cumbria County Council's cabinet member for transport is worried a Brexit-induced recession might lead to further cuts in public spending.

He said: “It will cost £250m to bring all the roads in the county up to A1 standard.”