THE number of people in Carlisle - and in Cumbria more widely - is rising.
Recent census data indicated that Carlisle's population has seen a rise of 2.3 per cent over the past ten years.
And although the age profile of the city's populace is changing, the total fertility rate - defined as the average number of children a woman would have if she experienced that year’s fertility rate during her childbearing years - is rising, according to new figures.
Office for National Statistics data shows there were 1,044 live births in Carlisle in 2021 – 22 more than the year before.
This gave a total fertility rate of 1.69 children per woman last year, up from 1.64 in 2020 and above 1.68 in 2019.
The ONS figures are based on birth registrations, and delays mean some births in 2021 may not be covered.
It follows provisional figures, based on NHS births notifications data, published by the ONS in March.
But what's the reason for the rise - which on a national level is the first increase since 2012?
A kind of Covid-prompted delay may be partly responsible.
The British Pregnancy Advisory Service (BPAS) said a rise nationally may have been caused by many women delaying trying to conceive during the worst of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.
'There is no 'right' number of births'
Katherine O’Brien, associate director of communications and campaigns at BPAS, said: "At the height of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, many women may have delayed trying to conceive, leading to the slight increase in live births in 2021.
"There is no 'right' number of births, but it is important that as a society we provide the support and healthcare services that enable women and their partners to have children at the time that is right for them."
The situation is not uniform across Cumbria.
In west Cumbria, the picture is mixed.
In Copeland, for example, the fertility rate appears to have risen slightly. But in Allerdale, ONS data shows there were 780 live births in 2021 – 67 fewer than the year before.
This gave a total fertility rate of 1.58 children per woman last year, down from 1.74 in 2020 but above 1.55 in 2019.
There are pitfalls in contrasting fertility rates and census population data; changing numbers of women of childbearing age can mean there is no correlation between them.
But we already knew from census data that the population in Allerdale has fallen very slightly during the last ten years - dropping by 0.3 per cent from around 96,400 in 2011 to 96,100 in 2021.
In terms of fertility rate, it's a very gentle decline, but goes against the grain of the wider county of Cumbria, where the fertility rate has risen - albeit almost imperceptibly.
The new data show that there were 4,173 live births in Cumbria in 2021 – eight more than the year before.
This gave a total fertility rate of 1.64 children per woman last year, up from 1.63 in 2020 but below 1.65 in 2019.
National picture
There were 624,828 live births registered in England and Wales in 2021 – up 1.8 per cent from 2020, but below the number registered in 2019.
Likewise, the fertility rate increased from 1.58 to 1.61 year-on-year – the first time it has risen since 2012 – but remained below the rate of 1.65 observed before the pandemic.
The ONS figures show a fall in fertility rates among younger women but a rise in older groups.
The largest decrease was among women and girls under 20 years old (16 per cent), while women aged 35 to 39 saw fertility rates increase by 5 per cent.
'More children born to unmarried mothers - for the first time ever'
Ms O'Brien said the high cost of childcare and the pay gap often seen between working mothers and similar women without dependent children can make it harder to have children earlier in life.
She added: "There are a variety of reasons why women are choosing to postpone motherhood, from career development to the ever-increasing cost of raising a child."
Of the live births across England and Wales last year, 51.3 per cent were to women who were not married or in a civil partnership – compared to 48.7 per cent to parents who were.
It is the first time since records began in 1845 that more babies were born to mothers who were not in marriages or civil partnerships.
Dr James Tucker, head of health analysis at the ONS, said: “This follows the long-term trend of declining marriage rates and increasing numbers of cohabiting couples seen in recent decades.
“However, caution should be taken in interpreting today’s numbers as we don’t yet know the full impact of the pandemic on marriage and civil partnership statistics.”
READ MORE: Census data are interesting - and raise questions about the country we live in
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