1997 remains a watershed moment in British politics. Labour won a general election for the first time in more than 20 years and became the first political party since 1931 to win more than 400 seats in the commons.

The Tories suffered loss after loss and high-profile MP after high-profile MP departed the political scene. Malcolm Rifkind. Neil Hamilton. Michael Portillo.

‘A new dawn has broken, has it not,’ said Tony Blair to jubilant supporters on election night and the political map had been redrawn.

Labour managed to woo middle England and won seats in places like Medway, North West Norfolk and Warwick all shifted to Labour. Blair managed to bring together a coalition of both middle class southern voters and working class northern voters only replicated since by Boris Johnson’s landslide in 2019.

Now, if the polls are to be believed, Labour would be set to win a larger majority in the House of Commons than 1997.

A poll, reported in The Independent, said that the party would win a 212-seat majority if a general election was held today.

Controversial broadcaster, GB News, reported that Labour were 30 points ahead of the Conservatives and online polling analyst, Election Maps UK says that if a general election were held today Labour would have a majority of more than 225.

Election Maps UK also predicts that Labour will win all of the news seats in Cumbria following the boundary changes apart from Westmorland and Lonsdale in the south.

This includes the new Carlisle constituency which reaches out to Brampton and beyond to the Scottish border and Penrith and the Solway which contains Alston in the very east and Maryport in the West.

Since the 2010 general election when John Stevenson became the MP for Carlisle for the first time, the Conservatives have been eating away at Labour’s domination in north and west Cumbria, before taking all the seats in the north of the county in 2019 for the first time.

Labour has since recovered slightly and currently control the new Cumberland Council with a healthy overall majority.

The latest polling indicates that there is a bit shift towards Labour in the public opinion and the party look set to win the election but Labour candidate for Carlisle, Julie Minns isn’t taking anything for granted.

“I bear too many scars from the 1992 election to risk thinking the next election is in the bag. And there’s too much at stake,” said Julie.

“Our NHS is on its knees, our schools are crumbling, our streets don’t feel as safe, our energy bills are too high, and everyone from farmers to builders are suffering because of chaotic, sticking plaster policies and Rishi Sunak’s weak leadership.

“The next election will be a referendum on 13 years of Conservative rule. But whatever anyone says, however big Labour’s current poll lead, every vote has to be earned.

“And you can only earn that vote if you listen to what’s important to local people.

“It’s why you’ll find me knocking on doors in the dark and the rain, why I’ve always got time to stop and chat in the market, why I’m spending my spare time meeting small businesses and local charities to understand what they want from a new Labour government.

“The last time Carlisle elected a Labour MP was the last time Labour won a general election. Winning here means a lot to me personally.

“But Labour winning, or not winning here, is the difference between a change of Government or more Conservative chaos. Every vote counts and I won’t stop working to earn as many of them as possible.”

Despite the positive polling for Labour, the Liberal Democrat candidate for Carlisle remains confident of causing an upset and says that incumbent MP, John Stevenson will finish in 3rd place.

“We can see the momentum is building,” said Cllr Brian Wernham in his candidate launch interview.

“Stanwix had been Conservative for at least 50 years with 60 per cent at least the vote being blue.

“For me as a Liberal Democrat, it was the other way round at 60 per cent who voted for me and Liberal Democrats in Stanwix.

“What it shows is how easily we have convinced those traditional Tory voters that actually it's not in their better best interests to vote Conservatives or in the country's best interests.

“I think it's going to be tough. I think the Labour Party are just going to lose lots of votes, because they are the opposition, the same as the opposition to the Conservatives.

"I think a lot of people are very worried about Keir Starmer. What people are very worried from every part of the political spectrum about the fact that he keeps flip flopping.”

The Liberal Democrats face a big challenge to win in Carlisle after only winning 6.6 per cent at the last election.

The Conservatives are facing a difficult election but in 1992 everything pointed towards a Labour victory at the general election only for the Conservatives to win with a narrow majority.

Tory figures know that seats they won in the north for the first time in 2019 – places like Workington – are where the battleground for the next election will be.

Carlisle MP John Stevenson is the leader of the influential Northern Research Group of Conservative MPs and believes that if the Tories place the north of England at the heart of their plans and continue the levelling up agenda then they can hold on to marginal seats and keep Labour out of office.

Whilst a date for the general election has yet to be decided - some figures are suggesting that Halloween next year is a possible date, the starting pistol has been fired on the campaigns.

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Candidates have been selected across Cumbria and the nation, campaign slogans are being prepared and manifestos are being written.

The figures at the moment all point to a Labour victory but that all relies on one unpredictable element: the famously fickle British public.

One thing is for sure, Cumbria is set to play a vital role in deciding Keir Starmer’s fate.