Tories could win Penrith and Solway despite chastening poll projection

Labour have been on track to win all of the seats in North and West Cumbria for much of the past two years and recent polls have said that the party is on course to win a ‘super majority’ of more than 200 seats.

Pollster YouGov has projected that Labour are set to win 425 seats in the House of Commons with the Conservatives second on 108.

A majority of this size would be the largest seen in this country since Stanley Baldwin won a remarkable 470 seats in 1931 amidst turmoil in the Labour party.

Despite chastening polling figures for the Tories, the party does retain some hope of winning Penrith and the Solway.

YouGov’s latest MRP poll puts Labour ahead of 36 per cent of the vote with the Conservatives only four points behind on 32 per cent.

The projection also suggest that Reform UK are set to win 16 per cent of the vote and they could be kingmakers for the winners of the seat.

Penrith and the Solway is one of the trickiest seats in the country to predict as it takes in traditional Labour wards on the west coast and Conservative leaning wards in rural parts of the county.

Reform votes will have a huge impact on Cumbrian seats and Carlisle Conservative candidate, John Stevenson, has warned voters against voting for Reform which he says cannot win in Carlisle.

“Latest figures confirm that locally, it’s a two-horse race between me and Labour,” said Mr Stevenson.

“Whilst Reform may do well in other areas, here in Carlisle and the Border they won’t win, and a local vote for Reform here risks us waking up on July 5 with a Labour MP.

“I’m the only one who can beat Labour here in Carlisle and the Border.”

READ MORE: 30,000 votes 'wasted' in Carlisle according to campaign group

The YouGov MRP poll has Labour winning in Carlisle and in the Whitehaven and Workington seat by comfortable margins.

The party must win both to have any chance of winning a majority in Westminster.