LESS than a week remains until polling day when Cumbrians across the county will be voting the 2024 General Election.
Rishi Sunak surprised the nation in calling for a General Election to be held on July 4 – much earlier than anticipated.
Since he called the election in late May, much has happened in British politics including the election betting scandal, a Labour gaffe on the Cumberland Cancer Unit, and the return of Nigel Farage to mainstream UK politics.
But despite the events of the past six weeks, the Labour party remains on track to win all of the seats across north and west Cumbria on July 4.
According to online polling analyst ‘Election Maps UK’, current polling statistics would mean that Labour would win the Carlisle, Penrith and the Solway and the Workington and Whitehaven constituencies.
Winning these three constituencies would represent a remarkable comeback for the party which suffered a series of defeats in Cumbria since 2010, when it first lost Carlisle to the Conservatives.
The ‘Election Maps UK’ data suggests that winning these seats in Cumbria would help the party to a record landslide of more than 280.
Labour have said they will take nothing for granted during the election campaign and Conservative party figures have dismissed the polls.
Other polling companies, including YouGov, who correctly predicted the 2019 election, have also predicted large-scale Labour majorities.
YouGov has projected that Labour are set to win 425 seats in the House of Commons with the Conservatives second on 108.
A majority of this size would be the largest seen in this country since Stanley Baldwin won a remarkable 470 seats in 1931 amidst turmoil in the Labour party.
“The best hope for Rishi Sunak when he started his campaign was a repeat of Tory fortunes as in previous elections such as 1992 and 2015: a return to the Tory fold of previous party voters who had become won't-vote or don't-know voters rather than being attracted to a lukewarm Labour appeal,” said Professor Richard Rose, for Electoral Calculus.
“If that were to happen, the Conservatives might still lose seats but at worst end up as a substantial Opposition in the House of Commons. This hasn't happened.
“Instead, Tory support has worsened to the point that the party now faces its worst defeat in its history, taking only 60 seats in the latest Electoral Calculus prediction.
“More than that, it faces the prospect of losing its position as the official opposition by falling behind the Liberal Democrats in the number of MPs it has in the House of Commons.
"The Conservative record of infighting in the past five years is far worse than any previous situation. Boris Johnson disappeared due to breaking rules, Liz Truss wilted rapidly when she tried to apply free-market theories and Sunak has had to preside over a cumulative rise in prices unprecedented in the lifetime of most voters. Moreover, he has made acting on immigration a key issue but has failed to produce results.
“Concurrently, Labour is no longer led by Jeremy Corbyn and the Liberals are not propounding incredible policies but a simple vote-winning appeal: vote Lib Dem to turn the Tories out. The only party defending a bigger record of failure, corruption and incompetence is the Scottish National Party.
“Add to this the fact that Sunak's centrism has encouraged Nigel Farage to return to electoral politics, giving disaffected Tories the alternative of voting for the harder-right Reform Party.
"It offers the option of voting for what you would like to happen.”
Despite talk of a national Conservative wipeout, the Tories are still in with a chance of beating Labour in the new Penrith and Solway seat.
YouGov’s latest MRP poll puts Labour ahead in Penrith and Solway with 36 per cent of the vote, with the Conservatives only four points behind on 32 per cent.
The projection also suggest that Reform UK are set to win 16 per cent of the vote - and they could be kingmakers for the winners of the seat.
Penrith and Solway is one of the trickiest seats in the country to predict as it takes in traditional Labour wards on the west coast and Conservative leaning wards in rural parts of the county.
Reform votes will have a huge impact on Cumbrian seats and Carlisle Conservative candidate, John Stevenson, has warned voters against voting for Reform which he says cannot win in Carlisle.
“Latest figures confirm that locally, it’s a two-horse race between me and Labour,” said Mr Stevenson.
“Whilst Reform may do well in other areas, here in Carlisle and the border they won’t win, and a local vote for Reform here risks us waking up on July 5 with a Labour MP.
“I’m the only one who can beat Labour here in Carlisle and the Border.”
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After weeks of campaigning and years of trying to predict the result, we will wake up on Friday, July 5 to a different political landscape.
Whilst Conservative figures have been keen to play down the polls, it does appear more than likely that Keir Starmer will move into 10 Downing Street a week today.
But the only way he can move into the one of the most famous addresses in the world is if he wins in Cumbria.
Cumbria represents a coalition that must come together if he wants to win the large majority that the polls have predicted.
Starmer must win in traditional Labour strongholds that have gone Tory in recent years, he must win in smaller provincial cities, and he must win support in rural areas that have been dominated by the Conservatives for decades. All of these locations are present within Cumbria.
The road to 10 Downing Street winds through Cumbria. Buckle up folks – the interesting part is about to begin!
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