It’s the final countdown: less than three months to determine who stays in the EFL and who drops into non-league and a world of pain.
With roughly a third of the season to go for Carlisle United and their rivals, the relegation battle is about to be decisively shaped.
Two of them wil be leaving the process, as Lord Sugar might say. Send the candidates in, please...
SCUNTHORPE UNITED
POSITION: 24th
GAP BELOW BOTTOM TWO: Six points
RELEGATION ODDS: 1/12
FORM (last 10 games): W2 D0 L8
OUTLOOK: The side in the bleakest position of all, Scunthorpe now find themselves two wins away even from second bottom. Keith Hill’s November appointment has not yet delivered the results spike intended, and a heavy January recruitment drive is now up against the clock to prevent the Iron melting into non-league.
OLDHAM ATHLETIC
POSITION: 23rd
GAP BELOW BOTTOM TWO: Two points
RELEGATION ODDS: 5/6
FORM (last 10 games): W2 D5 L3
OUTLOOK: The team most other strugglers are probably fearing right now. Oldham’s mood seemed below floor-level until the return of John Sheridan for a sixth spell in charge. Temporarily, he appears to have lifted spirits among a fanbase long antagonised by the ownership of Abdallah Lemsagam. Eight points from four unbeaten games has built momentum. From nowhere, Oldham are in with a shout - and have a game in hand on Carlisle. Can they now sustain their improvement?
CARLISLE UNITED
POSITION: 22nd
GAP ABOVE BOTTOM TWO: Two points
RELEGATION ODDS: 9/4
FORM (last 10 games): W3 D3 L4
OUTLOOK: On January 8, a third straight victory over Bradford City appeared to herald a decisive improvement in the Blues’ fortunes. Since then, they haven’t won a game. One point from five games, a string of injuries and a recent loss of the tightness seen in that end-of-year improvement leaves Carlisle very much in the mire. Keith Millen, armed with deadline-day signings, has to find a better way after some recent, troubling performances.
COLCHESTER UNITED
POSITION: 21st
GAP ABOVE BOTTOM TWO: Five points
RELEGATION ODDS: 11/2
FORM (last 10 games): W2 D3 L5
OUTLOOK: Colchester’s dive into the relegation mire has been arrested to a degree by interim boss Wayne Brown, who has stepped up well after the sacking of Hayden Mullins. One defeat in six suggests a new solidity in Essex. Saturday’s game against a toiling Carlisle, though, still reflected a certain softness of underbelly; losing two points late on a reminder that the Us are by no means free of danger yet. A string of games at home, where they have been far from emphatic, could now be key.
BARROW
POSITION: 20th
GAP ABOVE BOTTOM TWO: Five points
RELEGATION ODDS: 7/1
FORM (last 10 games): W2 D3 L5
OUTLOOK: The south Cumbrians are not out of the woods but nor have they ever plunged to the deepest depths despite a challenging season on certain fronts. Injuries have dogged Mark Cooper’s side, who have tended to produce victories when needed, even if following them up has seldom been straightforward. The January signings of John Rooney and Niall Canavan ought to strengthen them for the fight.
ROCHDALE
POSITION: 19th
GAP ABOVE BOTTOM TWO: Five points
RELEGATION ODDS: 40/1
FORM (last 10 games): W1 D5 L4
OUTLOOK: Rochdale will fancy themselves to be in a slightly false position given they’ve played fewer games than all the rest. At the same time, a lack of victories leaves Robbie Stockdale’s side still in an uncertain position. Much will depend on the division’s draw specialists making the most of their matches in hand, and ensuring the players brought in to replace top scorer Jake Beesley hit their straps. Outsiders for relegation, although 40/1 offered by Bet365 seems a tad generous.
WALSALL
POSITION: 18th
GAP ABOVE BOTTOM TWO: Six points
RELEGATION ODDS: 8/1
FORM (last 10 games): W2 D1 L7
OUTLOOK: The most recent of the division’s managerial appointments – they hired Michael Flynn yesterday – is designed to ease the worries of a non-league slide at the Banks’s Stadium. The new manager kept Newport up in more perilous circumstances a few years ago and, now Walsall have ended a seven-game losing streak, hopes that an underachieving squad can pull clear will have been renewed. Not the easiest start for Flynn on Saturday, though: Forest Green away.
STEVENAGE
POSITION: 17th
GAP ABOVE BOTTOM TWO: Seven points
RELEGATION ODDS: 9/1
FORM (last 10 games): W3 D4 L3
OUTLOOK: It took a while, but Stevenage have looked more competitive lately under Paul Tisdale, who has stemmed the defeats and, in three recent home games, restored the winning feeling. A side with experience in various places ought to have enough in the high-stakes battles ahead, although a current run of four games without a win reminds them that revival in the League Two relegation battle can be a precarious thing.
LEYTON ORIENT
POSITION: 16TH
GAP ABOVE BOTTOM TWO: Seven points
RELEGATION ODDS: 50/1
FORM (last 10 games): W1 D2 L7
OUTLOOK: Not a side who have been associated with the relegation scrap for most of the season, but there may be a few newly anxious thoughts in east London on account of a nine-game winless run which has yielded just two points. Orient haven’t scored in three games either, and amid growing criticism, Kenny Jackett will need to call on much of his experience to sort things out before the Os get sucked further in.
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