What does Carlisle United's goalscoring say about promotion chances?

But how do their efforts in front of goal compare with other prolific sides in the Blues’ history – and what does it tell us about their promotion chances?

Here’s a deep dive into the numbers…

PROMOTION POTENTIAL

Carlisle's current side are on track to outscore the heroes of 1994/5, and other promotion teams in their history (Image: News & Star)

With 54 goals so far in League Two, Carlisle are averaging 1.64 goals per game.

If that continues to the end of the season, it will yield a healthy 75 goals this season.

The good news from a scoring point of view is that, in United’s nine promotion seasons over the years, they have often scored fewer than that.

The current average offered by Paul Simpson’s side is better than those achieved in six of those promotions.

As things stand, Simmo’s Blues are on target to be more prolific than the boys of 2004/5 1994/5, 1996/7, 1981/2, 1973/4 and 1961/2.

They scored 74, 67, 67, 65, 61 and 64 goals respectively in those campaigns.

It should be said that 2004/5, 1994/5 and 1973/4 were 42-game seasons and 1961/2 a 44-game affair.

In the latter three of those cases, though, the current side’s average is still currently higher.

The United promotion sides who set a higher bar in terms of goalscoring are led by the ravenous bunch of 1963/4, who hit 113 in 46 games.

Then came Simmo’s boys of 2005/6, who fired 84 from 46 games, as well as 1964/5's Division Three champions (76 from 46).

There are caveats to some these comparisons, such as the fact certain of those promotions were achieved in higher divisions.

It is also clearly the case that goals at one end are not everything, and many of those promoted sides show the value of a solid defensive record too.

Broadly speaking, though, we can say that United in 2022/23 very much have the shape of promotion contenders, based on their ability at finding the net.

STREETS AHEAD

Carlisle have already gone way past last season's meagre total - and the full-season tallies of many other Blues sides

It says something about the improvement made by United under Simpson this season that, with 13 games still to go, they are already miles ahead of some of the goalscoring tallies of past campaigns.

Indeed, they have already scored more than 25* previous Blues teams managed in an entire league season.

That includes last season’s goal-shy side, who mustered a record-equalling 39 – matching the existing worst total set by Harry Gregg’s boys of 1986/7.

United’s tally of 54 from 33 games also beats the full-season tallies of the Carlisle sides of (deep breath) 1932/33 (51), 1934/5 (51), 1959/60 (51), 1968/9 (46), 1972/3 (50), 1974/5 (43), 1975/6 (45), 1976/7 (49), 1978/9 (53), 1983/4 (48), 1984/5 (50), 1985/6 (47), 1988/9 (53), 1990/1 (47), 1991/2 (41), 1992/3 (51), 1998/9 (43), 1999/00 (42), 2000/1 (42), 2001/2 (49), 2002/3 (52), 2003/4 (46) and 2013/14 (43)

(They’ve also surpassed 2019/20’s total of 39, though that season was truncated after 39 games because of Covid-19).

Again, it is true that some of the above totals reflected the higher levels at which United were operated, including the First Division (1974/5), and the second tier (mid-1980s).

All the same – on a goalscoring front, this has undeniably been a more successful and entertaining effort than many in United’s history…and it has set the Blues up for a tilt at glory.

THE BENCHMARKS

The Carlisle squad limbering up in January 1964 - amid their most prolific season of all time (Image: Newsquest)

While Carlisle have impressed with their goalscoring efforts so far, it is probably asking a bit much for them to hit historic highs in terms of their total this season.

Out of reach beyond reasonable doubt is the greatest season for scoring at Brunton Park – 1963/4, when a Hugh McIlmoyle-inspired Blues side hit 113 in 46 on their way to Division Four promotion.

In order to match that, Simmo’s men would need another 59 from their last 13 games at an average of 4.54 a game.

So…yeah, probably not.

Many of Carlisle’s most prolific campaigns came in the early decades of their Football League history.

United would also need to up their current average to threaten the numbers of, for instance, 1930/31 (98 goals), 1929/30 (90 goals), 1947/8 (88 goals), 1928/29 (86 goals), 1953/4 (83 goals) and 1952/3 (82 goals).

Another 30, meanwhile, would be needed to match the more recent total of 80 recorded by Simmo’s League Two champions of 2005/6.

If they can average 2.31 goals per game between now and May to achieve that, we can probably say with some confidence that the Blues are going up…and they might very well do it with less than that.