Carlisle United’s promotion push suffered a blow with the 1-0 defeat at Gillingham – but what did we learn from the game? Let’s take a closer look.
1 HOLE IN THE MIDDLE
Paul Simpson sacrificed an attacking midfielder in favour of a three-pronged forward line at Priestfield.
On paper, it looked an attack-minded selection. In practice, it didn’t come off.
Carlisle struggled to get their front men into the game, certainly in areas where they could hurt Gillingham.
In the process they also suffered in terms of controlling the game in that central area further back.
Even the smallest details show how Gillingham had, on balance, more of things in that key zone.
Indeed, the combined touches of Tim Dieng and Shaun Williams, which came to 135, were only slightly exceeded by a combined four in the United ranks – Owen Moxon, Callum Guy, Joe Garner and JK Gordon’s collective total was 141.
United have generally gone with a player – Jordan Gibson or Alfie McCalmont – in the number ten position – and in terms of helping them build the play they lacked at Priestfield, it would be no surprise if that is quickly restored next time out.
2 FEAST OR FAMINE
It is curious to be reflecting on a lack of goals in a season when the Blues have outscored all but one other team in League Two.
Their total of 58 is now the second best, Salford City having gone past them with three goals, taking them to 60.
Yet it’s still a highly impressive tally, all the more so when you consider those goals have come in just 28 of their 38 games.
Saturday was the tenth time in the league this season that the Blues have failed to score.
Their blanks have been evenly split – five away, five at home.
Considering they had 20 of 46 games last season without troubling the net, things are obviously better this time.
And it’s not as if they’re the only ones to tot up a few zeroes. Leyton Orient have failed to score in eight of their league games so far.
For Stevenage, it’s nine. Northampton Town, eight. Stockport County, eight. Salford City, eight.
For further comparison, Carlisle’s last promotion season of 2005/6 saw nine out of 46 games when they didn’t score.
If this stat is useful, it is simply to say that, generally, the Blues could do with keeping the nils to a minimum from here on in.
3 THE LONG GAME
This was not, it’s fair to say, an exhibition of smooth passing football on both sides.
In a cold wind at Priestfield, it was much more often a case of going long.
Indeed, WhoScored stats show there wasn’t a single through-ball played by either team.
The long ball count was inevitably higher: Gillingham launching 84, and Carlisle 76.
Gillingham’s accuracy rating with those was slightly higher – 43 per cent against 41 per cent.
In terms of creating circumstances for pressure, they managed to do a little more with it too.
Oli Hawkins, their awkward target man, earned four free-kicks, with strike partner Tom Nichols gaining five.
United’s attackers did not get near that sort of number.
And while free-kicks aren’t everything, they are certainly something, and Hawkins’ ability to get decisions from ref Charles Breakspear had its part in the late passages of play that kept the ball in United territory – and resulted in their last-gasp winner.
In terms of crossing, Gillingham were better too – seven of their 23 wide deliveries proving accurate, compares to United’s one from 13.
4 ABILITY TO RESPOND
If there’s one thing Carlisle have pretty much always done in the eras of Paul Simpson, it’s respond to a dip.
We can discount the string of defeats he suffered right at the outset in 2003, given the team he inherited. And even then, he almost went on to save them.
In the Conference season of 2004/5, there was a mid-campaign drop, but Carlisle recovered from that and ended with promotion.
In League Two, they lost four on the spin in the autumn but were soon back in the picture at the right end of things.
And in the winter, they suffered a 3-0 defeat at Macclesfield which was, if anything, even more alarming than Saturday's display – yet after that they reeled off win after win, and ended as champions.
The solutions were in that squad, as they are in this – United’s record over 38 games tells us as much.
Simpson, at the moment of test, tends to find the way, and should clearly be backed to do it again.
5 TIME FOR THE MENACE?
If you’re not scoring, and have an 18-goal striker on the bench, it stands to reason that the clamour for him to be used will be strong.
And yes, maybe it is time for Simpson to turn to Kristian Dennis again.
He is proven in finding the net this season after all - still far and away Carlisle’s leading marksman - and while one defeat in seven is hardly a case for ripping everything up, sometimes the obvious alternative is the way to go.
We should always resist the idea that the player out of the side is an automatic panacea – United, after all, had a three-game scoreless run with Dennis in the side in the recent past.
Simpson’s response to that, a change to the attacking line-up and Dennis lowered to the bench, saw four wins straight away.
So there must be nuance in any calls for change. United, too, started Dennis at Bradford and didn’t score.
Simpson has other options at hand, not least Ryan Edmondson, as well as a reconsideration of the attacking midfield area.
If anyone’s record, though, warrants a close look at a time of need - a time when games are tight, and penalty areas are to be expertly navigated by those adept at finding space, it has to be the Menace.
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