Paul Simpson is refusing to take Carlisle United’s play-off place for granted – despite the Blues being all but there.
United, beaten 3-2 by Salford City on Saturday, will be in the top seven barring an unlikely turn of events on the final day.
Mansfield Town can only oust the Blues from the play-off places if they win at Colchester, Carlisle lose at Sutton and there is also a goal difference swing of eight.
Simpson, though, referred to last season’s League Two promotion race, when Bristol Rovers won 7-0 on the last day to pip Northampton Town on goals scored, as evidence that nothing can be assumed.
“I'm delighted with what this group have done for 45 games, but I'm telling you now we are not guaranteed to be in the play-offs,” Simpson said.
“You saw it last season when Bristol Rovers went and smashed [the goals] they did on the last game of the season and Northampton missed out.
“We won't take anything for granted. And people have to remember we're Carlisle United. We ain't gonna do anything straightforward.
“We have to go to Sutton and make sure we do our job properly. If there's an eight-goal swing next week in Mansfield’s favour, then the truth is after 46 games, we don't deserve to be in the play-offs.
“We've done really, really well, I've been so proud of everything everybody's done, but I want game 47 and 48 to try and give us game 49.”
United’s automatic promotion hopes finally disappeared thanks to their defeat to Neil Wood’s side.
Victory would have kept them in the hunt but Luke Bolton’s late winner, after Carlisle had cancelled out Salford’s earlier two-goal lead, put paid to that.
Simpson felt United, after a sub-par first half, showed character to fight back.
But he pinpointed Jon Mellish's sending-off, for a retaliatory shove on Elliot Watt moments after Carlisle’s equalising penalty had been awarded, as the defining moment.
United’s boss has not ruled out an appeal but admitted it was a loss of discipline by Mellish, who is facing a three-game ban which would rule him out of the Sutton trip and both play-off semi-final legs.
“I'm not trying to be disrespectful to Salford because I thought they showed some real qualities today, but I think the turning point for me is Jon Mellish shoving Elliot Watt, and him [Watt] going down holding his face when there's no contact on his face,” Simpson said.
“That’s really disappointing, because I think he [Watt] is a bloody good player. So that's disappointing. But we've given the referee a decision to make.
“I honestly think if Mellish hadn’t have been sent off, we would have got the draw and maybe more because we had the momentum.
“That’s the level of professionalism you have to have, to not get drawn into that situation. We’ve shown incredible character to come back in the second half, but we’ve just got to take it on the chin now and move on.”
On the possibility of appealing against ref Seb Stockbridge’s straight red card to Mellish, Carlisle’s manager added: “I’ve had a look at it quickly, I probably need to look at it again and I need to discuss it with the other staff and get an opinion because it's still all very raw at the moment.
“My opinion is that we will be appealing against it. But it’s very early to say.”
United went two behind as Salford were much the better side in the first 45 minutes, Callum Hendry and Luke Bolton putting them in command.
Simpson said: “The first half we've been done by good play by Salford and sheer pace from Luke Bolton.
“I know Luke, I worked with him in the England group, so I know what he's got, his pace, we knew he was a threat.
“And we weren't able to contain it, unfortunately, but second-half I thought we did, we did it better.
“The second goal is a horrendous goal to give away. I don’t know the reasons and I haven’t spoken to Tomas [Holy] but I think he has to save that, simple as that.
“In the second half we showed incredible character to keep going and lift the fans. It’s taken a change of shape at half time to get ourselves back in it, and I thought it was a wonderful free kick from Owen Moxon and a great header from Joe Garner.
“It was good football for Joe to get in behind and get brought down for the penalty, then Denno [Kristian Dennis] keeps his composure.
“The third goal [for Salford] is one where if Mellish is on the pitch, Luke Bolton comes into the area where he is. He might still stick it in the far corner, we don’t know.”
Simpson said United must now remain positive as they aim to finish the season on a positive note – and, all being well, attack the play-offs.
“We can say that it's been a good season, but it will be disappointing if it falls away,” he added. “So the thing that we've got to do is review this one, put it to bed, and get ourselves ready for a massive challenge away at Sutton and hope that we give ourselves another chance of three more.”
Striker Dennis's penalty took him onto 21 goals in all competitions, and he is now the first Carlisle player since Karl Hawley in 2005/6 to score 20 league goals in a season.
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