Carlisle United suffered a 3-2 defeat to promotion rivals Salford City on Saturday – but what did we learn from the game? Let’s take a closer look…
1 Bolton left Blues in shade
As frustrating as Carlisle’s defeat undoubtedly was, there can also be due respect paid to the opponents - and in particular Luke Bolton.
Salford’s number 24 gave what must go down as one of the most effective and elusive performances by an opposition player at Brunton Park this season.
He was instrumental in the visitors’ opening goal, then scored their second before cutting in for that late winner.
Bolton was particularly menacing in the right channel, exploiting any space around United’s left defensive area and pockets of space between their back line and midfield, and beyond.
When Salford were at their best, the Blues did not appear to have the defensive numbers or shape to keep Bolton away from the danger zone – particularly with big Matt Smith occupying Paul Huntington's attentions to persistently – and once he got going, there was little they could do about his pace.
Until Carlisle mounted their second-half fightback, Bolton was the game’s best player (with Louie Barry often causing trouble on the other side). And after they did, he was alert to take advantage of fresh space in Carlisle’s rejigged but suddenly depleted formation on that left defensive side once more.
Sometimes you have to applaud good quality, even if you feel you could have done more to deal with it.
2 Tactical tightrope
It is refreshing to have a manager who is willing to invite scrutiny on his own decisions, rather than do what many do and deflect, deflect, deflect.
Paul Simpson, in his post-match assessment, openly admitted he may have got carried away with the idea of 4-3-3 being the way for Carlisle to win this game.
It is understandable why he might have persisted with it, given the relative shortage of goals in recent weeks.
United did, after all, fight back for a point against Stockport after switching to that shape, and then battled their way to victory at Barrow in 4-3-3.
Simmo’s view, though, was that he may have been over “excitable” in preferring it over the more usual 3-5-2 against a sharp and fluent Salford side.
There was no denying how much better Carlisle looked after he went back to that in the second half: Alfie McCalmont as a useful extra body in the middle, a wing-back system offering more defensive width and fewer holes, familiarity for the players who drove United back into the game.
The first half line-up was better in theory than in practice, given that Ryan Edmondson never really came in from the margins on an isolated right side, and with Jon Mellish only very occasionally threatening to get ahead of the game in his advanced midfield running role.
What Carlisle did show, when the parts were belatedly fitting together better, was plenty of the spirit and purpose that has carried them this far in 2022/23.
This is not a team that ever dies wondering. When the play-offs come along, hopefully games like this (and Stockport) prove valuable experiences when it comes to setting them up right from the off.
3 Impact subs
Saturday brought a welcome return to goalscoring impact for Joe Garner, who gave a substantial attacking performance after coming off the bench.
Garner scored one goal which was ruled out for offside – questionably, it seemed – and then buried an emphatic header to bring Carlisle back into the game.
It was only the striker’s second goal since returning to Brunton Park for a fourth spell, and a reminder that some of the old devil remains intact. He also forced their penalty which should have seen them home with at least a point.
Considering United will very likely now have to negotiate the high-stakes and potentially nervy experience of the play-offs, someone of Garner’s years and wiles hitting late form could be invaluable.
In his second-half cameo, Garner won three important aerial challenges after a longer spell when their starting forwards had won none.
He drew fouls too – something often associated with the 34-year-old – and it will now be interesting to see if Simpson gives him a fresh starting chance, given what he said recently about requiring the consistency of selection that involved Kristian Dennis back for a run in the side.
Another welcome contribution, meanwhile, was that of Jack Robinson, who got the longest outing of his loan spell when he came on in the second half.
The Middlesbrough loanee came into things at a time United were going hard at Salford in pursuit of a comeback.
Robinson applied good focus to this task and was not shy in an attacking sense, offering some good crosses – more, in fact, than any other Carlisle player all game – and connecting most of his passes well.
We’ve seen little of Robinson since January as a result of Jack Armer’s consistency. Given the likely suspension for Jon Mellish, one option for Simpson is to move Armer to the left central defensive slot with Robinson getting a go at wing-back.
Worth a try at Sutton, perhaps?
4 Reactive refereeing
The incident around Carlisle’s penalty did a number of participants few favours, and each can reflect on the needless nature of it all.
First, Jon Mellish’s desire to rub something in was seen when he offered what looked a sarcastic slap of the hands to Elliot Watt, as ref Seb Stockbridge pointed to the spot.
Watt’s discipline then failed him, giving Mellish a shove in the back which was from the cowardly school of behaviour.
The Carlisle man foolishly reacted, pushing Watt on his chest. The Salford man plummeted dismally to the floor, holding his face.
Stockbridge, the footage seems to suggest, was not looking at the instigating Mellish action, but certainly was when Watt had his rush of blood, and when Mellish responded.
Jamie Devitt’s response to Mellish, as the red-carded defender walks off, is telling. It is a case of a team-mate wishing his colleague had taken greater responsibility, rather than be in a position to bemoan a decision.
Should United appeal - Paul Simpson has suggested that's the way they'll go - they'll have to convince the authorities that the FA's definition of violent conduct, "when a player uses or attempts to use excessive force or brutality against an opponent when not challenging for the ball", was not the case here. They may argue towards the second part of that particular law, which sanctions violent conduct for "striking an opponent on the head or face with a hand or arm"; clearly not the case here.
At the same time – and whilst bearing in mind a ref has to make these calls in the heat of the moment – could an experienced eye really not tell that what Watt did and what Mellish then did were really not much different?
Would a pair of yellow cards, and an instruction to grow up, not have served the situation better?
Is a three-game ban proportionate for a silly shove, which was met with a – and let’s call it what it is – piece of cheating?
We shouldn’t go too far down the road of exonerating anyone for what went on. But it still doesn’t feel like the outcome is totally right.
5 The play-off predicament
Paul Simpson won’t have it that Carlisle are in the play-offs for definite, and while there is a tiny mathematical grey area, no responsible manager would think differently.
To miss out would take, though, a final day to beat pretty much any last-day United anti-climax.
The most infamous one of recent decades was 1990, when Carlisle were looking good for the play-offs only to receive a 5-2 stuffing at Maidstone United which knocked them out of things at the last, on goal difference.
Yet even that was not the same as a 90-minute swing of eight goals which is required for Mansfield Town to overtake them this weekend.
The real pessimists might consider that Mansfield have a 4-0 away win to their name this season (at Brunton Park) while Carlisle have a 4-0 away defeat at Sutton on their record (last term). A repeat of both those on Monday week, and it will be calamity for the Blues.
But it’s not the way to bet. Colchester, Mansfield’s opponents, are unbeaten in four at home and have scored four themselves in their last two in Essex.
Mansfield have been tidy on the road recently, and have to go for broke in. But the circumstances probably also require a Carlisle loss of some scale, and considering United’s biggest defeat margin on the road this season is two goals – and that’s only happened once (at Stockport) – realism says they’ll get there.
After that, it’s a case of who they’ll get in the play-offs. On league results alone, you’d fancy Bradford City, given they are the only side in the running who United haven’t lost to (one win, one draw).
Against the others, they’ve lost and drawn against Northampton, lost and drawn against Stockport, and beaten and lost to Salford.
On form, Northampton, Stockport and Bradford have three wins in their last five, while Salford have four, compared with United's one.
Won't be easy, then. But being in the mix is to Carlisle's credit - and at this stage, who can honestly rule anything out?
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