Bookies are steering away from a last-day play-off shock that would cost Carlisle United their top-seven place.

An unlikely sequence of events needs to happen for Mansfield Town to oust United from the play-off places.

And while Blues boss Paul Simpson is taking nothing for granted, the odds are firmly against the Stags pulling off a dramatic feat on the final day of the season.

Nigel Clough’s side are now as long as 16/1 with SkyBet to finish in the top seven.

In order to do that, the Stags need to win at Colchester United and hope either Carlisle or Salford City lose – and also achieve a big goal difference swing.  

In United’s case, Mansfield would have to make up eight goals on the Cumbrians, who go to Sutton United next Monday.

William Hill prices Carlisle’s top-seven chances at 1/200 given all the circumstances in United’s favour.

Bookmakers currently have Carlisle as joint favourites with Bradford City to win the play-offs, meanwhile.

Simpson’s side and Mark Hughes’ Bantams are both 11/4 with SkyBet to be promoted in the end-of-season shoot-out.

The play-offs odds are likely to change, though, when the final line-up from fourth to seventh is established this weekend.

Stockport County are 3/1 for play-off glory, but they still have a shot at automatic promotion.

So do Northampton Town, who are hoping to hold onto third place on the final day.

The Cobblers are 15/2 to go up via the play-offs with Jon Brady’s side aiming to avoid that route.

Salford City are 10/3 for play-off success with rank outsiders Mansfield 50/1.

Bradford could also remain in the automatic race should they win their game in hand at Crewe Alexandra tomorrow.

That would take the Bantams above Carlisle into fifth place, level with Stockport and two points behind Northampton with a game to go.

The chance of securing a home second leg in the play-off semi-final would then be out of Carlisle’s hands.

Should Bradford win tomorrow, United would have to beat Sutton and hope either Bradford or Stockport lose on the final day in order to secure a home second leg.

In Stockport’s case, the Blues would also have to bridge a goal difference gap of five.

Source: Oddschecker