If Carlisle United win Saturday’s play-off second leg against Bradford City by a single goal margin, and things go to extra-time and then penalties, how do the respective sides shape up?
A shoot-out would leave the Blues and Bantams relying on the goalkeeping expertise of Tomas Holy and Harry Lewis respectively.
It is fair to say that the visiting No1 has had more practice in this respect this season.
Lewis has, across 2022/23, faced eight spot-kicks in normal time of matches, and another four in a shoot-out.
Holy, by contrast, has faced just the one.
Lewis kept out an impressive three of the eight when penalties were awarded against the Bantams, though couldn’t keep out any in their solitary shoot-out of the season so far.
Holy, meanwhile, was beaten from the one penalty Carlisle have conceded all season in the league, scored by Mansfield Town’s Lucas Akins in February’s 4-0 home defeat.
Lewis's most recent penalty save came in January when he denied Rochdale’s Devante Rodney in January - the visitors scoring from the follow-up - having previously saved from Swindon Town’s Luke Jephcott last October (he also scored the follow-up), and Walsall’s Danny Johnson (watch below) in September.
A further three in the league saw Lewis beaten from the spot – by Crewe Alexandra’s Chris Long earlier this month, Grimsby Town’s Gavan Holohan in April, Stockport County’s Paddy Madden last October - and, in the Papa John’s Trophy, Sheffield Wednesday’s Michael Smith last August. Another in the league saw Sutton United's Lee Angol hit the Bradford crossbar.
The Trophy also supplied Bradford with their one shoot-out of the season – one they lost 4-2 to Leicester City’s Under-21s.
That saw the Foxes score all their four attempts through Kasey McAteer, Sammy Braybrooke, Paul Appiah and Ethan Fitzhugh. For Bradford, meanwhile, Levi Sutton and Kian Harratt missed with Alex Gilliead (just) and Dion Pereira scoring...
Gilliead is the most likely of that quartet to step up again if needed at Brunton Park, as an expected starter in the second leg. Pereira was an unused sub in the first leg while neither Harratt nor Sutton are still at the club (Harratt back with parent club Huddersfield Town, Sutton now on Harrogate Town’s books).
In United’s goal, Holy boasts plenty of experience but, other than the Mansfield game, has to go back to 2021 for his other most recent penalties.
His last save came for Ipswich Town as he denied Peterborough United’s Jonson Clarke-Harris in January that year.
Five penalties before that all went in past the big Czech, with his next previous spot-kick save coming impressively against Wycombe Wanderers’ Joe Jacobson in November 2019...
In terms of shoot-outs, the last time Holy was involved in one came back in August 2018.
That was when he was in the Gillingham side that took Millwall all the way in a League Cup game at the Den.
The hosts, though, prevailed 3-1 on spot-kicks. Holy saved the first, from Jed Wallace, but was beaten by the next three, one of them taken by ex-Carlisle defender Byron Webster. And that was Holy’s only involvement in a shoot-out to date in English football.
In terms of Carlisle in penalty shoot-outs, their recent record is good.
They won their one shoot-out this season which came against Fleetwood Town in the Papa John’s Trophy.
The Blues prevailed 4-2 that night to pick up a bonus point on a night Michael Kelly was their keeper.
Jordan Gibson missed their first but Corey Whelan, Jack Stretton, Jon Mellish and Taylor Charters all scored.
Gibson, Whelan and Charters are all potential takers if things go the distance against Bradford this time around.
Gibson has taken spot-kicks in first-team games before, while Charters has shown nerveless finishing more than once in this situation.
As well as in the Fleetwood game, the Maryport midfielder also struck the deciding kick when Carlisle beat Hartlepool United 4-3 on penalties in the Trophy last season – and his effort also proved the winner in another shoot-out win over Lincoln City (4-3) in the same campaign.
In all, Carlisle have won their last four shoot-outs (another coming against Hayes & Yeading in 2020/21’s FA Cup). Their last defeat on penalties was inflicted by Stoke City in a Trophy tie in 2018/19.
There seems little doubt as to the leading candidates to step up if things go to penalties in this second leg, meanwhile - Bradford’s Andy Cook having netted four penalties so far in 2022/23 and United’s Kristian Dennis having converted three.
The Blues, meanwhile, can boast a 100 per cent record in play-off shoot-outs.
Okay, it’s only happened the once. But nobody who was there will forget the dramatic finale against Aldershot in 2005 in a hurry...
That is more, though, than Bradford City have experienced, the Bantams yet to be involved in a play-off shoot-out.
Could our collective nerves handle one on Saturday?...
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