Does a low-scoring start mean a bad season is in store? How often does a team recover from a goal-shy beginning to a campaign? What does Carlisle United’s history tell us? And there any grounds for hope?
The short answers are: 1) often, but not always; 2) occasionally; 3) it offers some interesting patterns, at least; and 4) after five games, there has to be, if you look hard enough.
Now, nobody would argue that two goals from five league games is a platform for a prolific campaign. Carlisle have so far found the step up to League One difficult at the part of the game that matters the most.
Solving it remains the biggest issue as they continue to acclimatise to third-tier life, and here’s hoping they do. Until then, here is a dive into the numbers over the Blues’ decades when it comes to how many goals they do or don’t score at the start of a campaign…
THE CURRENT PICTURE
United’s record of two goals from their first five league games is among the eight smallest returns from such a period in their history.
The current side are one of six Blues teams who have produced such a small initial tally, and only two have registered fewer.
The numbers do suggest that a poor goalscoring start is a portent for a season of struggle – but there are a couple of notable exceptions.
The team of 1983/84, for instance, registered a measly one goal from their first five league games in Division Two.
Yet that did not stop Bob Stokoe’s side from embarking on a highly promising campaign once they found their shooting boots.
Indeed, until the closing stretch of that season United were well placed for a serious promotion challenge and, but for a winless run towards the end, might well have made it to the top flight.
Carlisle managed 48 goals from their 42 league games, a far from fearsome return, but the finishing of players like Mally Poskett, coupled with a highly resolute defence, took them to seventh.
In 1933/34, meanwhile, the Blues opened with two goals from five, yet improved to a solid mid-table finish in Division Three North.
So that’s the good news. The bad is that, more often than not, a slow start has equalled a slow season. One goal from the first five in 2003/04 heralded a fourth-tier relegation season, after all.
Two from five in 2013/14 in League One, the same. Other campaigns which have set off with this term’s tally – two from five in 1975/76, 2001/02 and 2014/15 – all saw United at the lower reaches of the table and in some cases fighting desperately (but successfully) for survival.
WHAT’S THE AVERAGE?
Based on their record over all their league seasons, Carlisle should have somewhere between six and seven goals by now (the first five game goalscoring average is 6.6).
United, then, are behind the line somewhat after their outings against Fleetwood Town, Oxford United, Wigan Athletic, Exeter City and Port Vale.
Clearly their current average of two from five would not lead to anything other than a barren campaign, but the Blues will improve on that.
After all, their very worst scoring starts to date, in 1983/84 and 2003/04, eventually yielded 48 and 46 goals respectively.
The side of 1933/34, after just two from their first five, ended up with a healthy 66 from 42 games. And the 2014/15 group, after the Graham Kavanagh-Keith Curle changeover, ended up on 56 goals despite having netted two from their opening five.
The most common tally by the Blues at the five-game start of a season has been five goals, a tally they’ve hit 13 times over the years.
That holds with the idea United can, at times, be slow burners.
GOAL GLUTS
What are the best goalscoring starts Carlisle have made to a season, and have they resulted in success?
Well, sometimes, but not always. And there are one or two real anomalies.
The best return after five league games is the massive 19 goals plundered by Fred Emery’s 1953/54 Division Three North boys.
With Jimmy Whitehouse and Alan Ashman on fire, they laid waste to Rochdale and Mansfield Town in those five openers – yet their back line was not so formidable, since Carlisle failed to win their other three games in that initial high-scoring cluster.
An end-of-season total of 83 goals was the second best in the division for Emery’s goal-happy Blues, yet a leaky defensive record meant they ended up only 13th in the table.
The second best goalscoring start by a Blues side came in their first ever Football League season of 1928/29. That proved a highly creditable opener for United at such a level, yet 86 goals overall – many of them plundered by the great Jimmy McConnell – got them only as high as eighth.
And what about the fourth most prolific start to a league campaign they've enjoyed?
That came in 2008/09, when they hit 13 in five and John Ward cannot, at that stage, have been contemplating what was going to happen next: a dramatic slide down the table, the manager’s removal in the autumn, and a relegation battle which was only won on the final day: clear enough evidence that it’s not just about how you start, but also what happens in the middle and the end.
SIMMO’S RECORD
Carlisle’s manager is overseeing his fourth full season in charge and, from his previous three, there are encouraging examples of United hitting the goal trail hard after a gentle start.
The 2005/06 season saw the Blues score only four goals in their first five league games as they adjusted to League Two life after promotion.
What happened next was a surge for the ages: a rampant autumn, led by Karl Hawley, and a decisive run-in illuminated by Michael Bridges, Carlisle going on to win the title with 84 goals from 46 games.
As for last season, a below-average start of five goals in five games flourished into a promotion push, United netting 66 goals in 46 games before winning the play-offs.
Simpson’s other full season was a more orthodox example of a team starting well and continuing in that vein – 14 from the first five in 2004/05, and the Blues going on to win promotion from the Conference with 74 goals to their name before coming through the play-offs.
ANY OTHER OUTLIERS?
There are a few clusters that make the case for a goalscoring start being of only limited value in terms of gauging what might happen to a side.
Take the relegation seasons of 1974/75, 1976/77 and 1986/87. United started with six goals from five in those campaigns – exactly the same as their promotion teams of 1981/82 and 1996/97.
That number also reflected some play-off pushes (1993/94, 2016/17) and other struggles (2019/20, 1959/60).
All in all, then, there is obvious enough reason for United to improve their returns...but, as ever, it’s the whole package that truly counts.
CARLISLE’S GOALSCORING AFTER FIVE LEAGUE GAMES (p indicates a promotion season, r indicates relegation)
19 – 1953/54
15 – 1928/29
14 – 2004/05 (p)
13 – 2008/09
12 – 1929/30, 1931/32, 1948/49, 1951/52, 1992/93
11 – 1947/48, 1950/51
10 – 1937/38, 1946/47, 1955/56, 1963/64 (p), 1982/83, 1994/95 (p), 2015/16
9 – 1938/39, 1952/53, 1987/88
8 – 1930/31, 1936/37, 1954/55, 1962/63 (r), 1969/70, 1978/79, 1988/89, 1989/90, 2010/11, 2017/18
7 – 1949/50, 1961/62 (p), 1964/65 (p), 1966/67, 1970/71, 1972/73, 1990/91, 1999/00, 2012/13, 2018/19
6 – 1959/60, 1965/66, 1974/75 (r), 1976/77 (r), 1977/78, 1981/82 (p), 1986/87 (r), 1993/94, 1996/97 (p), 2011/12, 2016/17, 2019/20
5 – 1934/35, 1956/57, 1957/58, 1971/72, 1973/74 (p), 1984/85, 1991/92, 1998/99, 2000/01, 2006/07, 2007/08, 2009/10, 2022/23 (p)
4 – 1932/33, 1935/36, 1958/59, 1960/61, 1985/86, 1995/96, 2005/06, 2020/21, 2021/22
3 – 1967/68, 1968/69, 1979/80, 1980/81, 1997/98, 2002/03
2 – 1933/34, 1975/76, 2001/02, 2013/14, 2014/15, 2023/24
1 – 1983/84, 2003/04
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