Carlisle United: what we learned from Bolton Wanderers loss

1 AN UNWANTED RECORD

Seasons like this tend to create the wrong kind of statistics and, in Carlisle’s case, they have now set a record which is rather telling about their struggles in League One.

Saturday’s game was a 23rd consecutive league match in which they have failed to keep a clean sheet.

Never before in United’s history have the Blues had such a long spell in a league campaign without a shut-out.

Bolton's goalscoring meant it was 23 consecutive league games this season without a United clean sheet (Image: Barbara Abbott)

From the 2-2 draw with Stevenage on September 9 onwards, it has been a case of trying and failing to keep the back door bolted. And Zac Ashworth’s Bolton opener (followed by the visitors’ three further goals) meant the current side have now gone past United’s 1974/75 team, who held the previous record of 22 games without a clean sheet with the reasonable mitigation of coming up against top-flight sides every week.

The current run isn’t technically the record if you include spells involving two seasons, such as the 17-game run at the end of 1946/47 and a further seven at the start of 1947/48.

But if United concede against Leyton Orient they’ll equal that 24-match feat, and then shipping at least one against Portsmouth the following weekend would surpass it.

Gloomy stuff. Saturday, meanwhile, was the first time United have conceded four at home in a league game since the 4-2 defeat to Crewe Alexandra in October 2019.

In League One, it’s the first time since Colchester United put four past Graham Kavanagh’s Blues in January 2014.

Their goals-against total of 47 is now the second worst in the division, while their current goals-for total of 25 from 29 games would, averaged out over 46 games, leave them on 40: a hair’s breadth avoidance of equalling a club record (39) there too.

2 ON A RUN

More stats, I’m afraid.

Carlisle have now suffered defeats in their last four league games and are, despite the various struggles elsewhere, the only side in the EFL to post zero points from their last 360 minutes of league football.

The only side in the 92 to match the Blues in this respect are Newcastle United in the Premier League.

United remain sorely short of wins (Image: Ben Holmes)

United’s losses to Exeter City, Oxford United, Barnsley and Bolton Wanderers make it the first such four-in-a-row since the January-February pre-Simmo spell in 2022 when Keith Millen’s team suffered a quartet of reverses in League Two.

It’s been a long time since a Simpson side at Carlisle endured such a period. Not since September-October 2005 have his Blues team lost four off the reel in the league. They lost several more in sequence during the infamous post-Roddy Collins run in the autumn of 2003, before the fourth-tier turnaround began in Simmo's first campaign in caretaker and then permanent charge.

Wins, as everyone knows, are what Carlisle need, with just four from their 29 league games so far.

The fewest number of victories ever returned by a United side over a full league season is seven: the measly total achieved by Aidan McCaffery’s team that finished bottom of the entire Football League in 1991/92.

That was over a 42-game season. In 46-game campaigns, the record low is nine wins, set by Martin Wilkinson’s fourth-tier strugglers who stayed up on 1999/2000’s last day.

At third-tier level, since the advent of the four-division system, Carlisle’s fewest wins in a season is ten by Harry Gregg’s relegation-bound side in 1986/87.

United’s current average would put them in record territory in all those categories unless they can improve it. And to survive, they’ll need to improve it dramatically.

3 HIGHER BAR

One of the uncomfortable, obvious and so far unavoidable problems United have faced this season is the higher quality of League One whether that be in technical aptitude, tactical adaptability or the ability to withstand those moments when the Blues change things up in ways that have worked in the past.

In League Two, for instance, there were occasions when Jon Mellish’s selection was as good as having two players in the side.

If things were getting a little stodgy, Paul Simpson could launch the defender into midfield and find that his disrupting effect would frequently spook opponents.

Jon Mellish remains ever willing but the impact of throwing him into midfield is more limited in League One (Image: Ben Holmes)

Remember, as one of many examples, the 4-1 win at Salford City when, in the second half, United’s number 22 found himself on the right wing of all places, crossing for Kristian Dennis to head home their fourth goal, capping a strategic masterclass after the home side had briefly fought back.

It is not as if Mellish is any less willing or committed to the versatile requirements this season but Carlisle are coming up against sides just too good to be unsettled by the change in any lasting way.

After Bolton’s dominance of the opening 20 minutes, the switch briefly affected the pattern of things and United had a short spell when they weren’t being quite so suffocated.

But it will take more than that to dismantle for long the poise of intelligent players such as Josh Sheehan, Bolton’s deep-lying playmaker, and a side as drilled in their movement and thought as Ian Evatt XIs tend to be.

The other consequence comes when mistakes in possession are swooped upon more readily by opponents. Bolton were certainly ruthless in that regard on Saturday, their opener coming after a Mellish pass was cut out, and Carlisle’s general looseness on the ball was punished on other occasions too.

It is not that United should totally jettison it as an in-game Plan B, more that they have to recognise that it isn’t going to work as well or for as long and they need other and more durable alternative schemes.

This, and other aspects of Saturday – the futile aerial work asked of an isolated Luke Armstrong (six headed challenges won, not a single shot attempted), the ineffectiveness of those in attacking midfield and in support of the striker – underlined the difference in what the Blues are offering along this difficult road.

It lends more weight to the argument that, should they survive or bounce back from relegation down the line, Carlisle must evolve into a group that plays the kind of football more regularly seen at this level today.

4 THE DEBUTANTS

Slim pickings, really, from a day when United were beaten so convincingly. But it remains right to look at their latest acquisitions and try to judge what they might bring to the cause.

First on was Jack Diamond, introduced at half-time and stationed on the left of an attacking three.

It was the Sunderland loanee’s first game since March 2023 and as such, expecting instant returns was probably a long shot.

Josh Vela, pictured, and Jack Diamond were second-half debutants on Saturday (Image: Barbara Abbott)

Diamond did at least show flashes of the elusive quality on the ball that has made him such a dangerous player in the past, as United among others have learned to their cost.

The Blues could not really get him close enough to Bolton’s danger zone for long enough, but there were a couple of moments when he ghosted past defenders or drew fouls that made you think that, with a few more miles in his legs, he could cause a degree of damage.

Josh Vela is less lightly run this season, with 28 games already for Fleetwood Town, and he looked up to the speed of things in his midfield cameo.

He topped United’s tackle count with five such challenges despite only being on the pitch for 20 minutes, and certainly looked an organiser in his demeanour in front of the defence.

Vela’s record of goals and assists does not imply he’s a carbon replacement for Owen Moxon but he does come with pedigree, and a side that has struggled to manage their way through full games at this level will surely lean on that experience over the critical games to come.