What we learned from Carlisle United's Leyton Orient defeat

1 ON A RUN

If only there were some happier numbers to focus on. Alas, in a season like this, and on a run like Carlisle are enduring, the stats tend to be damning and are now historically bad.

The defeat at Brisbane Road was United’s fifth in a row – the worst such run in the league since John Ward’s reign hit the skids in the autumn of 2008.

For Ward’s losses against Scunthorpe United, Leeds United, Walsall, Tranmere Rovers and MK Dons, read Paul Simpson’s setbacks against Exeter City, Oxford United, Barnsley, Bolton Wanderers and Leyton Orient.

Carlisle players react after conceding the third goal at Orient (Image: Richard Parkes)

That the Blues have not managed such a lengthy points-free period in the time since – not even in the crisis spells under Graham Kavanagh, Steven Pressley and Keith Millen, for example – show how hard they’re finding things right now.

It is largely pointless to think what might happen if it doesn’t soon halt, because everyone knows the answer to that.

At least – small mercies indeed – the current side are still some way off the longest losing run in Brunton Park history.

That came in the 2003/04 season, when the team handed on to Simpson by Roddy Collins went a hefty 13 league games without a single point between September 27 and December 13.

That finished United’s Football League survival hopes off even though Simmo mounted a remarkable revival in the second half of the season.

The time to do something similar in shorter time this campaign is dwindling by the week. On clean sheets, meanwhile, 24 games without one equals a club record in the league. Ship one to Portsmouth next weekend, and 2023/24's porous side will be out in front.

2 CLASH OF STYLES

Paul Simpson once said that if a team can put “five or six passes” together, normally it’s enough for them to gain control.

This, at present, is clashing with the unfortunate reality that Carlisle are just not doing that, and their style and struggle is not inclined to make it a common feature of their game either.

It may have been more achievable at the lower level of League Two, and there’s always more than one way to skin a cat, but things are certainly not working for United right now.

Harrison Neal attempts a pass at Orient (Image: Richard Parkes)

A look at the possession numbers on Saturday reveals a notable difference. Leyton Orient are a more assured passing team, making 503 passes compared to Carlisle’s 371.

Despite this, United hit more of what WhoScored.com terms long balls than their hosts – 97 to 82.

Orient’s short-pass count of 405 to United’s 265 put them clear in that respect and, referring to that Simpson comment about sequences, Carlisle’s average passing “streak” in the game was just three. Their hosts’ was five.

It’s not that Orient kept everything on the floor – early on, they tried to lift balls over United’s defence and almost caught them out in the opening minutes – but there was more focus to their efforts either way, and their ball-retention when Richie Wellens sent players like Ethan Galbraith forward into wide attacking positions meant they could get into useful areas and stay there.

In contrast, United only looked capable of taking brief holidays into the final third, and seldom with any cohesion (their opening goal was a rarity in this respect). Seventeen attempts on goal to three is also a damning comparison of how these two sides went about things on a stark day in east London.

3 SURVIVING ON SCRAPS

Carlisle broke their transfer record to sign Luke Armstrong but have not, so far, been able to get the best out of the ex-Harrogate Town man – not even close.

The 27-year-old’s numbers from his five appearances to date reflect how United simply haven’t worked out how to maximise him.

On Saturday, the striker didn’t manage a single attempt on goal. The previous weekend against Bolton Wanderers he had one effort.

Luke Armstrong was a willing worker in the air but didn't have a single chance in the game (Image: Richard Parkes)

At Barnsley, he had a couple of shots, one of which led to his only goal so far. Against Oxford United he had three tries, and on his debut, at Exeter City, two.

Armstrong’s chance count, then, has declined already from a modest start. One shot in his last two games is paltry stuff indeed and speaks poorly of the service Carlisle are getting to their new leader of the line.

Once more Armstrong had an aerial job to do against Orient, and won his share in that department, but at this early point in his Blues career it has been a case of the theory of signing a proven striker trumping the practice of how to make the most of him.

It goes without saying that this quite blatant shortfall needs to be dealt with if United are to become more dangerous in what’s left of this dwindling fight, and if their outlay on Armstrong is going to deliver some of the dividends needed.

4 DEAD-BALL DEARTH

Set-pieces. Now, where to start?

Something has gone seriously awry when a team can concede in the way Carlisle did Orient’s second goal.

The Blues were aggrieved at the awarding of the corner in the first place, and they had something of a case there, but that’s no excuse for what followed.

Whatever preparation had gone into the scheme of defending a dead-ball delivery, it took the afternoon off when Shaq Forde found so much space in the six-yard box to head home.

Shaq Forde heads Orient's second goal (Image: Richard Parkes)

It was a well-aimed and worked Orient set-piece but met nothing in the way of proper Carlisle objection.

Significantly, it's not as if this is an isolated issue bearing in mind how the Blues have conceded other goals in the recent past. Mark Harris scored similarly for Oxford United at Brunton Park last month.

A corner, albeit one worked short, also saw the Blues ship one to Port Vale on New Year’s Day. At Wigan Athletic on December 29: they conceded from a corner.

That’s four goals in the last seven games, all from an area where Carlisle, whatever their form in general play, could have helped themselves with better organisation and execution.

Simpson, in post-match interviews, suggested this was an area that needs another fundamental look on the training ground. The evidence is pointing hard that way.

As for United’s own attacking set-pieces – again, nowhere near good enough. Jack Robinson had a poor game at Orient and his deliveries from left-sided free-kicks were particularly paltry.

Carlisle could make things so much more competitive if they carried a threat in this area, and were also sound and aggressive in defending them. As it is, it’s one weakness of several that sides are able to exploit.