Bristol Rovers 2-1 Carlisle United: What did we learn?

1 HISTORY BOYS

The wrong kind of history, of course.

Carlisle United are sadly on track for one of the worst campaigns in their history, points-wise.

But at least – small mercies indeed, here – they shouldn’t threaten all-time records in the third tier. Should they...

Sam Lavelle's expression says it all (Image: Richard Parkes)

The Blues are stuck on 20 points with 13 games left in League One. They should have it in them to avoid setting a record low mark for the third tier.

Since the four-division system came into being in 1958, officially the worst season at this level was put together by Cambridge United in 1984/85.

The Abbey Stadium club finished on a measly 21 points from their 46 games, the team managed respectively by John Ryan and Ken Shellito winning four, drawing nine and losing 33.

One draw from what’s left will at least spare Carlisle the ultimate ignominy of breaking new ground, and two points will mean they won’t share the lowest-ever tally.

Other dismal third-tier seasons have included (with pre-1981 teams’ totals rounded up to three points for a win for comparison) – Rochdale in 1973/74 (23 points), Leyton Orient in 1994/95 (26 points), Forest Green Rovers in 2022/23 (27 points), Barnet in 1993/94 (28 points), Newport County in 1961/62 (29 points) and Stockport County in 1969/70 (29 points).

That we can raise a nervous eyebrow at the risk of Carlisle even joining that particular conversation shows just how desolate the current form really is.

2 RUNNING TO NOWHERE

LLLLLLLL.

Carlisle’s run of results has long been compared to the start of a Welsh place name. But even that joke’s wearing long and thin now.

Eight straight defeats it is now, and only three times before have we been able to say that of a United team.

Where Carlisle's current losing run ranks in their league history (Image: News & Star)

This is now the joint second worst losing sequence in a league season by a Carlisle team.

The ignominious record is held by the 2003/04 side who lost 12 in a row from September to December.

After that, the next worst tally is eight, which has been, er, achieved, by the Blues in 1934/35, 1986/87 – and the current vintage.

It is now 58 days, and 720 minutes – or 12 solid hours of football – since Paul Simpson’s side did anything other than lose.

A stark reckoning indeed. Carlisle’s defeat at the Memorial Stadium took them past previous seven-game woeful runs as put together by the 1986/87 side in a separate spell that season, as well as Ian Atkins’ 2000/01 strugglers.

They’ve also long left in their slipstream six-game losing strings as witnessed in 1955/56, 1974/75 (twice), 1976/77, 1985/86 and 1989/90.

Lose at Burton tomorrow, and…no, let's stop there. It’s all just too miserable.

3 SHORT LEAD TIME

Let’s revisit one of the many statistical issues that this season has thrown up, given that it reared its head once more in Gloucestershire on Saturday.

It was the 11th game in which Carlisle have taken the lead in this League One season. From those games, they’ve won four, drawn four and lost three.

United took the lead - but, as ever, it didn't last long (Image: Richard Parkes)

In other words, that’s seven occasions when Simpson’s side have not been able to convert a winning position.

That’s in a large part down to their inability to hold onto an advantage for any significant period of time.

Carlisle have been in the lead for just 199 minutes in their League One games so far (from a total of 2,970 minutes – only 6.7 per cent of the available time.

On average, when they take the lead in the third tier in 2023/24, they hold on to it for just 18 minutes.

Saturday hit that average number exactly – Josh Vela scoring on 16 minutes, Chris Martin equalising on 34.

Now, some of those advantages have occurred late in games, such as eleventh-hour winners by Joe Garner against Burton Albion and Jon Mellish against Port Vale.

Most significant, then, is what happens when United score early. When they’ve taken a first-half lead, they’ve not won once.

It’s happened against Fleetwood Town (twice), Lincoln City, Barnsley, Leyton Orient and now Bristol Rovers.

The average time it takes an opponent to equalise in those games is 22.5 minutes.

It is not so much a team capable of shutting up shop as one that leaves the door wide open and sends out a list of invitations.

4 VITAL SIGNS

Everything is relative right now. Carlisle did some better things on Saturday but their tally of bad things was still higher, given how the game unfolded over 90 minutes.

They still contrived to concede two goals, the second of which was another of those examples of a decent side cutting a path too easily through United.

All the Blues can do, other than striving to be more stubborn in such moments, is fall on the more positive aspects of what they did – look for a grain of hope, somewhere, anywhere.

Luke Armstrong battles James Wilson (Image: Richard Parkes)

Tactically they were, broadly speaking, better at the Memorial Stadium. The 4-4-1-1 system which involved Jack Diamond floating behind Luke Armstrong, with Jordan Gibson and Taylor Charters wide right and left, did seem to make United a more interesting attacking proposition.

They earned 13 shots against the mid-table hosts. Only one of those was on target – Josh Vela’s goal – but this was a rare occasion when Carlisle managed more attempts than their opponents.

Small steps, largely after the event in terms of realistic survival. But at least a few patterns were visible.

Diamond’s own performance was one of intrigue and frustration. The Sunderland loan man’s quick feet in certain positions opened up some possibilities for Carlisle.

His failure to make the most of them spoke of an ongoing lack of that razor-sharp quality that must be hard to find quickly after such a long spell out.

Diamond’s 87-minute outing on Saturday was comfortably his longest since joining United. At some point you’d like to think things will click in the way that made him such a bright lower-tiers player with Harrogate Town and Lincoln City in the fairly recent past.

In Vela, Carlisle have a midfielder with a certain eye for goal. In Harrison Neal, a reliable customer who will put his foot in and generally pass to a good standard.

None of the above is getting United results yet, and hope for this season is pretty much gone. It’s simply a matter of seeing what can flourish, to an extent, between now and late April – and what needs to be cut adrift.