What did we learn from Carlisle United's defeat at Charlton?

1 MORE HISTORY UNDER THREAT?

Let’s start with the result. Sorry, we must. As well as Carlisle played in some respects at Charlton, it’s the outcome that still counts – and it was yet another L for the tally.

The reverse in south London was Carlisle’s 23rd from 36 League One games: a sorry total indeed.

At risk now is a particularly unwanted record, should things carry on in this respect.

United's fans have witnessed 23 defeats from 36 games so far - a record-threatening tally (Image: Richard Parkes)

The most defeats United have ever suffered in a league season is 28. That amount was suffered by Harry Gregg’s relegated Third Division side in 1986/87.

So another six from their remaining ten games, and Paul Simpson’s side will go past that group.

A grim prospect. But one, with a defeat percentage of 64 per cent, that is sadly not out of range.

This is already the worst season for defeats since 2014/15, when the sides managed by Graham Kavanagh and Keith Curle lost 24 times in League Two – yet that was over the full campaign.

Already this team has equalled the number of defeats suffered when Kavanagh’s Blues went down in 2013/14.

They’ve also lost more than other relegated United teams in 1985/86 and 1995/96, and are bearing down on the numbers of others.

In a results business, Carlisle’s remain dire.

2 PLAY IT AGAIN, SAM?

No need to sidestep the elephant in the room. You can’t. The elephant is too big. The elephant practically is the room.

So, is it time for Paul Simpson to drop Sam Lavelle?

The case for the prosecution is easily made, and from different angles.

Sam Lavelle was United's fall guy at The Valley (Image: Richard Parkes)

On the sheer basis of errors and poor performance, which Saturday’s mistakes amounted to, it is not difficult to make an argument for Carlisle’s No5 to be taken out of the side.

As some have pointed out, players such as Tomas Holy were dropped for less, initially at least. So consistency demands a similar approach.

For those of a more forgiving disposition, there is still a humane case to be made too. The consequences of his 75th-minute error, which gifted Alfie May the Charlton winner, will have made Lavelle the loneliest man in a blue shirt on Saturday.

A step out of the team, however brief or long, could be in his interests in terms of sparing him more heavily critical attention, and giving his mind and body a break, after such a bad day.

On performance, Carlisle’s general defensive record remains poor. If that’s not predominantly on keeper Harry Lewis, as Paul Simpson argued today – and he performed well on Saturday – then where else in the collective does the finger point?

And why should Lavelle, or anyone else, be insulated against being dropped when things are plainly so bad?

Simpson has picked the former Charlton man for every league game so far, whether in a central defensive three or two. Trust in Lavelle, as defender and at times captain, has been an article of faith from day one.

He was one of United’s key summer signings, their Morgan Feeney replacement, someone with promotion and leadership credentials: known to be a good and sound character. Axing him now might be viewed as an attack on the idea that he can be the Blues’ kingpin after all. Or would it?

One certainly cannot imagine Lavelle wanting to be taken out of the fray. The alternative approach is to pick him, declare more faith and hope that a more solid display under scrutiny can reveal his better side.

If it’s the other way, Simpson either goes to a back four, or calls on Ben Barclay or Seán Grehan – the former more likely, you’d think, provided he’s fit enough, given the reluctance to give loanee Grehan much first-team game time this far.

Whatever the call, Carlisle’s defensive issues are unlikely to be all swept away. And they’ll still have the likes of Devante Cole to deal with on Tuesday night.

One irony in Lavelle’s performance at The Valley, meanwhile: he had the second-highest pass completion percentage in the team, at 79.4 per cent. What lay within the 20.6 was, sadly, damning.

3 PASSING MUSTER?

On the more upbeat aspects of Carlisle’s performance, it did seem like more of a passing game was on show on Saturday – something many fans have been calling for amid this run of clunky defeats.

The statistics back this impression up.

According to WhoScored.com, United made 470 passes during the game at Charlton.

That is comfortably their highest such tally in away games this season, the next best being 400 at Port Vale back in August.

Dylan McGeouch improved United's passing game at Charlton (Image: Richard Parkes)

United’s passing numbers were not far short of those of their hosts this weekend, which is not something that’s often been the case across 2023/24.

Part of the reason for the increase is surely the return to the XI of Dylan McGeouch.

The Scot took the place of the injured Josh Vela in Simpson’s side, and is plainly a different kind of midfielder.

McGeouch drops deep, looks to receive the ball, lubricate United’s play, tick along passing sequences – something that’s not happened greatly, as a collective, in recent times.

Where Vela made just 11 passes in his 58-minute outing against Reading last time out, McGeouch on Saturday executed 54.

It did not transform United into pass-masters as such, and nor did it get them out of their losing rut. But in their better periods it was possible to see them building through the lines a little more constructively.

The road to consistency and winning for this team is clearly going to be a winding one. Perhaps, in this testing spell, having someone in there like McGeouch who is at ease with, and deed builds his game around, being the fulcrum when it comes to ball-retention can at least take some of the haste out of Carlisle’s struggling game.

4 LEADING THE WAY

“How **** must you be? We’re winning away,” came the chorus from the away end after Luke Armstrong had fired United in front at The Valley.

Yet Charlton were no different to previous sides Carlisle have also faced on their travels.

Equally ****, we can assume, are Barnsley, Leyton Orient, Bristol Rovers and Burton Albion.

In those four consecutive away games, United also took the lead. Armstrong’s effort in south London made it five on the spin.

Luke Armstrong celebrates his opening goal - but, as before, Carlisle couldn't hold a lead for long (Image: Richard Parkes)

Needless to say, it’s what happens next that counts and is consistently working against Carlisle.

A failure to retain that lead, to dwell on a recent theme, is hurting them. United did that under bombardment at Burton but in the other four in this run, couldn't manage it.

Indeed, on three occasions they’ve not even seen the advantage to half-time. At Orient, despite opening the scoring, they found themselves behind by the 45-minute mark.

Bristol Rovers and Charlton managed to draw level in time for the interval. In the four away games they’ve lost in this particular spell, Carlisle’s lead has remained intact for an average of 26 minutes.

So while it’s possible to diagnose an amount of fortune in Charlton’s leveller on Saturday – Daniel Kanu’s miscued shot spinning into the path of Alfie May – the general pattern isn’t luck, far from it.

United just can’t get far enough down the road of making an opponent sweat for their comeback. The art of obstruction remains lost to this side, whose defensive record – now the clear worst in the division – bears that out.