What we learned from Carlisle United's defeat at Shrewsbury

1 'A REASONABLE GOAL'

Not my words, Carol. The words of Carlisle United’s owner himself.

So, at what point do we start to lift our sights above the detail of mere games and ask the higher questions: the how, when, why and who of Carlisle’s journey from bad to worse this season?

Speaking ahead of the January transfer window, owner Tom Piatak snr said: “The goal is just safety in League One. I'd love to see better but I think this year that's a reasonable goal and any Carlisle United fan would see that as a reasonable goal – that's what we're going to try to achieve.

Tom II, right, and Alice Piatak, second left, with guests and directors at the Shrewsbury game (Image: Richard Parkes)

"We're really focusing in the short-term on the transfer window, identifying the right players and going and having those discussions, and bringing the existing squad to play at the level we need to play at League One.”

Whatever the long-term capabilities of those United went on to sign, the short-term has been abysmal and the “reasonable goal” missed by a mile. Since new faces came into the team it has been 12 defeats from 13 games, this one at Croud Meadow the latest.

It followed a sadly predictable path. Tom Piatak II, who was at the game along with wife and fellow director Alice, went on record with the club last week to say the regime retains faith on Paul Simpson for next season.

Where, then, does the finger of accountability point? Is this atrocious run of results put entirely down to the circumstances of an ahead-of-schedule promotion, a tough market, and so on? Or does someone answer for it – and who? And how?

The way United under their new leaders handle this troubling situation will be instructive, whatever the broader positives their tenure looks poised to deliver.

2 DECLINE UNDERLINED

Games like Saturday’s sum up the real nature of Carlisle’s slide from a tough late summer through a demanding autumn to a bleak midwinter to a shocking early spring.

Shrewsbury came into the game 17th and with one point from six home games. As much as Paul Hurst has delivered some useful away results, there was a plain anxiety in the home ranks as the early stages unfolded.

The Carlisle that started the season were able, on occasion, to dig out results from places like this, or at least stay in tight matches and then find some of the resources to get something from them.

United's early-season battling identity has all but gone (Image: Richard Parkes)

Consider the rarely-spotted character of the double fightback at Stevenage in September, for instance. The resilience to hold Peterborough United at home, defeat Bolton Wanderers away, peg back Charlton Athletic at home…

A few other examples are dotted through the first half of the campaign. Now, though, this looks a beaten team much sooner, lacking the body language you would associate with true fighters – and certainly short of the numbers you would pin on a team still going for it, still scrapping to the last.

Yes, it was only a 1-0 defeat, but considering it was the 25th loss of 38 games – 66 per cent of all their league football since last August – even a narrow loss can point to a gaping gap.

Before United went to Exeter City on January 6, their goal difference was -16 from 25 games. Nothing to celebrate, sure.

But better, certainly, than what they’ve produced in the last 13 games, where their goal difference alone is -18, adding up to a bleak total of -34, the worst figure by eight in the division, and the second worst in the EFL (behind Rotherham United).

It all arrows towards a fair degree of relative resilience having been lost since January, which is the opposite of what is supposed to have happened, and raises evident questions about...well, just about everything.

3 THE CASE FOR GIBSON?

Jordan Gibson remains United’s top scorer yet right now is clearly out of Paul Simpson’s favour.

The midfielder was limited to a substitute appearance on Saturday and, along with his team-mates, was unable to inspire a comeback when coming on.

It was the fifth straight league game when Gibson has not been in the starting XI, comfortably the longest such spell of the season on the bench for Carlisle’s number seven.

Jordan Gibson has been limited to a substitute's role in recent weeks (Image: Richard Parkes)

Simpson clearly feels the short-term is better served without the 26-year-old right now. It is certainly a far cry from those early weeks of the campaign when the former Bradford City man appeared to be the Blues’ leading light.

Notably since the January signings came into the mix, Gibson has started just five of 13 games. The search for solutions has since taken Simpson elsewhere, with Dan Butterworth the man asked to pep up the attack on Saturday.

United’s boss clearly has his reasons for turning away from Gibson as a starter. And we should always resist the idea of a single player, out of the side, as a sudden panacea.

All the same, of the 29 games Gibson has started this campaign, United have won five and drawn seven. Of the 14 he hasn’t started, they’ve won one and drawn one.

A range of different factors go into those stats but Carlisle’s record is still unarguably better with him in their team. It is too late to change the direction of this campaign now, and too late, one imagines, for certain players to spin Simpson’s judgement.

But what’s being tried at the moment isn’t working either. Is it not worth, then, giving someone who has, at least at times, proven himself a dangerous player one last thrash in 2023/24?

4 NO DEFENCE FOR ATTACK

After a couple of two-goal games, it was back to the old struggle for United going forward at the Croud Meadow.

Simpson fielded three attack-minded players in Luke Armstrong, Jack Diamond and Dan Butterworth, yet they still came up short against Paul Hurst’s nondescript Shrews.

Butterworth was the better of a sterile bunch, at least giving home keeper Marko Marosi a workout with a couple of shots.

Jack Diamond's efforts were again to no avail at the Croud Meadow (Image: Richard Parkes)

For Armstrong, it was a particularly empty day: no shots or chances in the entire game for United’s line-leader.

Diamond, too, found no joy at the end of his runs and dribbles and as much as Simpson has been largely pleased with the Sunderland loanee so far – and as much as there’s mitigation for Diamond given the amount of football he’d missed before joining Carlisle – the Blues are still waiting for a goal or an assist from the 24-year-old after ten appearances.

United do not have goals in a central midfield of Dylan McGeouch and Harrison Neal, while their two wing-backs on Saturday had a combined total of one between them all season.

Sam Lavelle, who had two of their better chances, has one strike. Jon Mellish has two this campaign. In total, there were nine 2023/24 United goals in their entire starting XI in Shropshire.

It was a 15th game of 38 where they haven’t mustered a goal. Four sides, believe it or not, have fewer than their overall tally of 33 (Shrewsbury, for instance, have only 29) but none of the above adds up to anything other than a side getting things wrong at the business end, consistently.