Carlisle United were beaten 1-0 by Blackpool at Brunton Park on Saturday – but what did we learn from the game? Let’s take a look…
1 ROCK BOTTOM
Paul Simpson, before the game, said a “small win” even in United’s relegation predicament could be getting off the bottom of League One before the end of the campaign.
Ninety minutes later and that modest ambition was firmly crossed off the list.
Carlisle are now guaranteed to end the season 24th out of 24 in the third tier – something which has long seemed their destiny.
Although this is the tenth time United have been relegated in the Football League, coming bottom of the pile is a rarer occurrence.
Indeed, this is only the fourth time in their history that Carlisle have propped up a division, and only the second time they have gone down in the process.
The previous campaigns when United have come bottom are 1934/35, 1974/75 and 1991/92.
The 34/35 season saw Carlisle at the foot of Division Three North but, in the absence of automatic relegation, managed to earn themselves re-election.
The 91/92 campaign, meanwhile, saw the Cumbrians bottom of the entire League but spared the drop from Division Four by the demise of Aldershot and the lack of relegation amid the reorganisation of the league with the advent of the Premier League.
As such, 74/75 is the only previous campaign when United have finished bottom and been relegated. And that was from the top flight.
Another grim stat is the tally of defeats in a league season – 28 – which equals a club record set by Harry Gregg’s relegated 1986/87 third-tier side. Lose to Wycombe Wanderers or Derby County, and Simpson’s 2023/24 strugglers will be out on their own.
2 MARGIN OF ERROR
Simpson referred after the game to the number of games Carlisle have lost by a single goal, bemoaning the fact his side haven’t managed to turn enough relatively close games their way.
He’s certainly right in terms of margin. Saturday was the 16th game of the League One campaign when the Cumbrians have been beaten by such a gap.
They are also now in double figures for 1-0 defeats, given the Blackpool game resulted in the tenth such outing.
It’s a damning fact in itself that one goal has often been enough to put Carlisle away.
And as close as one-goal defeats might appear on paper, the truth is United have not been near enough in too many of them.
Of the 16 losses mentioned above, Carlisle have led in five of them. The others have got away from the Blues without enough defiance from the beginning.
The idea of United being incapable of fighting back is also highlighted by these patterns. Out of 44 games, they’ve failed to score in 17.
And while they’ve mustered 14 points from a losing position this campaign, the last of those was on New Year’s Day against Port Vale.
Any time they’ve gone behind in the 19 games since, they’ve been beaten. And that’s happened on 15 occasions.
As such, Karamoko Dembele’s 35-second opener for Blackpool may have been the earliest goal the Cumbrians have conceded this season, but the trend says victory was sewn up with 99.4 per cent of the game still to go...
3 SAFE ZONE
Blackpool enjoyed a second clean sheet of the season against Carlisle as the Blues failed to score for the 17th occasion in 2023/24.
Other than a couple of nearly moments, United always looked depressingly good value for that outcome.
There was certainly minimal threat down the middle of the pitch. Consider this heatmap, via WhoScored.com, from the game.
It reflects key areas of the park where United simply failed to construct anything lasting or consistent.
The Blues tended to wide areas in anything they did muster, but again, this was not fruitful given the lack of chances that came the way of their strikers.
One moment in the second half when, on the right, they dithered over crossing and opted to pass backwards, when a big No9 such as Georgie Kelly was craving service in the middle, summed up United’s lack of confidence and purpose which has defined this season of struggle.
The January signing had a couple of half-chances on his first home start, but nothing of real note, and Luke Armstrong’s only genuine sight of goal was a glancing header which James Husband cleared in front of the line.
On other occasions, his endeavours in the Blackpool box were soon snuffed out. The visitors had nearly three times as many shots at United and four times as many corners, and this from a performance where they were far from ruthless, despite superiority.
If Armstrong and Kelly are to be the front two to cause damage in League Two next season, working out how to supply them needs to involve much more consistency, and idea, than was on show here.
4 THREADBARE BLUES
Injuries are not the main reason Carlisle are down. A lack of quality to meet the level of League One is.
That said, it’s undeniable United are limping over the line and have been unable to keep enough men fit for long enough across this troubled campaign.
Before kick-off on Saturday the Blues were missing eight senior with injury. Other absentees – Jordan Gibson, Alfie McCalmont, for well-documented reasons – took the sidelined tally to ten.
It was then Jack Robinson’s turn to go down hurt in the first half and his ankle injury led Simpson to some pessimistic early bulletins after the game.
Ten of 29 pros on the squad list is a heavy toll, with youth team defender Josh O’Brien summoned to make up the numbers on the bench on Saturday.
It has, then, been a season of inconsistency in many ways, both in performance and availability. It looks, at this stage, like Carlisle will have two ever-presents come the end of the campaign, with both Sam Lavelle and Jon Mellish set to hit the 46-appearance mark if selected to face Wycombe Wanderers and Derby County.
A nod to their durability, perhaps, in the circumstances, given this is a marked rarity across 2023/24. Jack Armer has 36 starts from 44, and Jordan Gibson 27, and the fact the long-departed Owen Moxon is the next most regular starter with 25 – and everyone else has fewer than 20 – tells you a lot about the churn along this unsuccessful scramble at the bottom of the division.
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