Pressure is for tyres, Alan Shearer said. And it very much applies to the wheels that are turning at Carlisle United as a new season looms that will either end, reaffirm or revitalise certain things.
Amid all the change, on the pitch and off it – the new signings, the new executive boxes, the new Warwick Road End lavatories, praise be – this appears more clearly than ever a time of expectation. Whether that can hold hands with the reality is the question that dominates on the eve of 2024/25.
Judging by the tone taken by Tom Piatak, United’s owner, during the close-season, accountability is going to be higher on the list than perhaps it was last term, amid the flag-waving, foam-hand-shaking, fact-finding early months of their ownership as the team they bought collapsed to League One relegation.
“Yes, there is pressure, no doubt,” he said. “We want to win. We're committed to it. Everybody knows what we have to do, and we're out to do it. And if not, it's going to be disappointing, and things would have to change.”
Whether that translates into a demand for promotion or merely a campaign of positive recovery after relegation, this was the clearest statement yet of wish and intention. After spending millions on the stadium, upscaling other parts of the club and overseeing a certain overhaul of the squad, this seems the point where United’s American owners will demand delivery.
Certainly, it is no use professing to Own The North if you’re 17th, say, in League Two. No good pronouncing other grand ambitions if you’re being humbled by Bromley and Harrogate Town, a season after you’ve been up against Derby County and so forth.
If the order to be better than that is the climate, Carlisle’s struggle (probably too kind a word) in 2023/24 is the context. This new season, and how they go about it, will be an attempt to correct the terrible trajectory of what went before.
The way United came back down will also inform supporters’ sentiments too, at least initially. We got a hint of that after the pre-season defeats to Rochdale and Gateshead, before a better display against Stockport County improved the mood. It pointed firmly to the importance of a good or at least solid start once things get under way this weekend.
Begin well, with decent identity taking shape and enough good results to encourage, and space can be put between this season and last. Start with a cluster of inadequate performances and a small stack of defeats, and forgiveness will be limited with some.
As such, an extended margin for error does not seem present as Carlisle, with a collection of new players, readjust to League Two again, having exited the division only 15 months ago. Paul Simpson, for whom this will be a fifth start of a season in charge of his home-city club since 2004, believes a new side, and a winning culture, will need time to “evolve”.
Which sounds sensible enough. Yet it feels like some instant positivity in displays and results is also needed to justify the patience requested.
Flattening and reversing the curve after relegation is far from easy, but not impossible. Carlisle have bounced straight back up before (1963/64, 1996/97) but also gone down consecutively (1985 to 87), and endured other tortuous scrapes after the drop (1998/99, 2014/15).
Everything done this summer, in terms of personnel and approach, has to result in last year’s losing culture being blown to bits. Given plenty of the squad were involved in that 24th-out-of-24 relegation, it will be impressive if they can all rise cleanly from it. This is a question of habits, of mindset, of muscle memory. How Carlisle deal with their first spell of defeats, however early or delayed it happens, will be telling.
In terms of Simpson’s position this is surely the most pressure upon his shoulders in all his time at United, even if previous periods have seen the club in a much more chronic position. In his first spell he orchestrated fundamental improvement which earned, and justified, faith in his ability to lead the club back from relegation. In his second spell he produced sorcery to avert the drop, then inspired a promotion which still makes the goosebumps dance.
Last season, though, was a flawed misadventure. Simpson himself acknowledges that it would have done for most other managers. The 58-year-old is an icon of the Blues, also someone fundamental to the vision now being unfurled by the Piataks. Making Carlisle good again after the very recent past would be another emphatic victory for Simpson. Failing to turn this corner would add a note of regret to a story that’s otherwise been era and club-defining.
Simpson appears wedded to 3-5-2 as the starting system, a case of the manager sticking to what he knows and what he feels still effective in the fourth tier. Carlisle do not seem to be chasing a more progressive passing method as seen by most in League One (and even a couple of National League opponents in pre-season).
Instead, they are banking, probably rightly, on League Two continuing to offer a mixed bag of styles, and still rewarding a side that can be muscular rather than strictly nimble through the thirds. Carlisle’s wing-backs, the newly-recruited Archie Davies and Cameron Harper, are going to be key. With little in the way of wide attackers in the squad, Plan A must be sharp, durable and secure.
In the market this summer, United satisfied a couple of the regular yearnings of some Blues fans by bringing back a couple of ex-players (Charlie Wyke, Aaron Hayden) and taking a fresh look at the Scottish market (Harper). The arrival of Dundalk’s Davies, meanwhile, is the most obvious fulfilment of the Piatak order to cast the net wider in terms of recruitment.
At the back, Hayden and Terell Thomas – a particularly strong pre-season performer – add stature, leadership and character. Carlisle should be better for all of that, and also more effective at set-pieces, provided the delivery is good.
In attack, Wyke is the clearest result of any “step-change” spending and the newly-appointed captain will be expected to deliver both goals and street-smarts in an inconsistent league. Whether there is enough genuine creativity to supply him is the debate that lingers, especially with a ball-playing midfield arrival, Ethan Robson, now sidelined for three months.
United’s middle ground, which has been damaged persistently by injuries in recent weeks and will still be without the much-missed Callum Guy until the autumn, is of the hard-working variety and if there is a battle to be waged in League Two, one can count on Harrison Neal to fight it, Josh Vela too. The latter’s up-and-down running looks to be an important feature of how Carlisle will look to press and hurt teams. There still seems a vacancy, though, for more finesse in that central department.
Carlisle have only dipped a toe into the loan market so far, Daniel Adu-Adjei an intriguing young option up front. Anyone that follows him on a temporary basis must bring more substance than last season’s loanees, who were almost exclusively failures. Again, pressure, and limited grace, will follow the endeavours of Simpson and head of recruitment Greg Abbott on this front.
Of those players longer on the books, certain individuals are seeking more comfortable times. In goal Harry Lewis will hopefully show his better qualities with improved protection. Sam Lavelle first needs to get his place before setting about putting some of last season’s torment to bed.
This is a season when Luke Armstrong will need to make good on United’s investment, Georgie Kelly too. Dan Butterworth, bright in some of the friendlies, could add a little x-factor if consistency accompanies his efforts. All of those, plus Adu-Adjei, ought to benefit from someone as canny as Wyke taking the blows and showing the way at the front of the team.
At the younger end, 2024/25 must accelerate the development of Gabe Breeze one way or another. The Cumbrian goalkeeper has been backed by the club and showed positive glimpses last season. If he’s not an early starter (which seems unlikely), a loan move to a good level might be in everyone’s interests – provided Jude Smith, another new face, proves an adequate understudy for Lewis.
Following departures, Carlisle’s backroom staff has been refreshed this summer, with Sophie Birnie and Glen Johnson arriving as physiotherapist and goalkeeping coach respectively. Both seem bright, approachable characters; their freshness could prove welcome on the long journey ahead.
Below the first team, a new era for United’s academy begins, the youth set-up now headed by Steven Rudd, with the vastly experienced Kenny Brown leading on recruitment. Positive early signs of a long-term improvement throughout the academy – areas of which have been pointedly criticised by Simpson and others – need to appear this season, along with the polishing of one or two potential gems in the under-18s, like Freddie O’Donoghue and Dan Hopper.
Brunton Park itself will display some fundamental change, given the expensive – and, in all honesty, vastly overdue – overhaul of the East Stand, Warwick Road End facilities and other parts of the ground. The much-trailed new training ground should begin to materialise later this year.
These are genuinely positive leaps for the club. They also add to the pressure on the team to deliver, and keep any cynicism at the gates.
It would be remarkable if attendances stay at the same level as last season, given the lack of big-club visitors in League Two and the basic fact United have dropped back a level. Yet, with the positive sentiments towards the Piataks reflected in strong season-ticket sales, a successful campaign has the potential to keep on tapping into the recent growth of Cumbrian support. Another grind at the wrong end would shave numbers off the total no matter what else the owners do.
Also off the pitch, Carlisle are growing their administrative and operations team, while in-house media has seen significant change with a new website and the CUTV streaming service, which has had a mixed reception in its infancy. That ought to grow more polished as time goes on. For the rest of the media, the challenge is to cut through any additional layers of presentation like this, not just hitch a ride on the Piatak bandwagon.
Pre-season predictions from outside pundits have varied considerably, but a majority seem to feel the Blues capable of competing at the upper end. It is not a division of giants this time around, unless you include Bradford City, whose attempt to escape this level has been consistently neurotic of late.
One day someone will harness the size of that club, and the potency of Valley Parade. Whether it will happen in 2024/25 is as unpredictable as the division in general. If momentum is key, then Doncaster Rovers look strong, as much for the players they’ve retained (Luke Molyneux) as those they’ve brought in (Billy Sharp, Jordan Gibson, Joe Sbarra) after last season's gallop to the play-offs.
MK Dons look well-equipped and have recruited with a serious challenge in mind. Bookies’ favourites Chesterfield, who stormed to the National League title, have strengthened at both ends with high-end players for this level, although Paddy Madden, their marquee attack signing, starts the season injured.
Port Vale have made a host of headline signings and Darren Moore will be expected to have them in the race. Gillingham should be solid operators. Karl Robinson might lift Salford City from recent underachievement when set against their budget. Colchester United, harder-nosed under the Cowleys, could be dark horses.
Bromley’s Hayes Lane Stadium will be a new one for the Blue Army to visit. The Ravens’ esprit de corps, established manager (Andy Woodman) and access to loan players in the south London orbit could help them acclimatise. Barrow, with Stephen Clemence replacing Pete Wild, look a side that could go either way – numerous clubs fit that description in truth – but repeating last season’s play-off push feels like a long shot.
Morecambe, everyone’s fancy for the drop, start the season amid off-field uncertainties and a squad thrown together in that climate. If anyone can galvanise an unlikely force at the Lancashire club it is Derek Adams, who in his third spell there is assisted by the former United captain Danny Grainger. Simply making the Shrimps competitive will be an achievement in 2024/25.
Others are either going the wrong way or treading water, the likes of Accrington Stanley, Grimsby Town and Newport County needing to find a new formula after underwhelming times, and Cheltenham Town and Fleetwood Town needing, like Carlisle and Port Vale, to generate new optimism after relegation, something unclear in either case, though the well-liked Charlie Adam could emerge as a positive managerial figure on the Fylde coast.
Harrogate will, as ever, test the pretensions of teams who fancy themselves, whether or not they can push on much further from the mid-table rump. Notts County should be sturdy but will miss Macaulay Langstaff’s goals. Tranmere Rovers have reunited some of United’s 2022/23 promotion attack (Omari Patrick joining Kristian Dennis) while AFC Wimbledon, Walsall and Swindon Town must try to rise from mid-table (the former two) and an underwhelming 19th (the Robins) respectively.
Nothing in there, you feel, to make the knees tremble. But underestimating anything in League Two is the first idea that should be shown the door at Brunton Park, especially given where United have just come from. Most poignantly of all, 2024/25 will be the first season since 1958/59 when a director’s seat isn’t occupied by Andrew Jenkins, who passed away last month. His legacy is one of loyalty, love and steadfastness of support. Carlisle will need all those qualities, plus nerves of iron and a new ruthlessness, to make this season an adventure he would have enjoyed.
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