What we learned from Carlisle United's draw with Colchester United

1 – KEEPING IT CLEAN

Full credit to Harry Lewis, first and foremost, for another defiant display in Carlisle’s goal.

The keeper played a full part in the Blues’ clean sheet, showing good reflexes and awareness, making some excellent saves and also punching well when needed.

This wasn’t in particular a game of high efficiency when it came to the accuracy of either side’s shooting, but Colchester landed enough attempts on target to concern United.

Lewis, then, needed to be adept and, in the wake of a similarly resolute showing in Carlisle’s last away game – the 2-0 win at Swindon Town – the Blues’ No1 is certainly growing into his best form in a United jersey.

Amid their struggles, Carlisle have now survived consecutive away games unscathed. It had been more than a year since they previously went two unbeaten on the road in the league (draws at Stevenage and Lincoln City last September).

So that’s a little tick, at least, and much needed given how porous they’ve been at home.

Consecutive clean sheets on United’s league travels, meanwhile, are now on the record for the first time since April 2023, when Paul Simpson’s side held off Walsall and Barrow.

And, out of nowhere, Carlisle now have the chance to set a mark that hasn’t been achieved since the autumn of 2017. Not since a string of shut-outs against Crewe Alexandra, Crawley Town and Colchester United that September-October have they had a trio of consecutive clean sheets in away league games.

Similar efforts by Lewis and co at AFC Wimbledon next weekend will no doubt be needed to pull off that seven-year feat. For now, we can also acknowledge that three clean sheets, their overall record to date, has already equalled last season's league tally, though that says more about 2023/24's desolation than anything else.

2 – BALANCE OF POWER

Evidence of how Williamson is trying to get United into more controlling shape was clear, again, in part of this game at least.

Carlisle have not yet put on a complete performance under the head coach, which is perhaps to be expected given the struggles he inherited.

Yet the attempted evolution in style and general grip on games is easier to see, and easier to dwell upon when United remove the kind of flaws that cost them in their previous two home games.

United showed some signs of the control Williamson wants them to gain in games (Image: Richard Parkes)

At Colchester they were less error-prone and, in terms of their handle on things, there were signs of intention in their best periods of the game.

By half-time, for instance, United had occupied possession for 65 per cent of proceedings. Colchester’s response reduced this by the end but Carlisle still ended with a 56 per cent chunk – not bad, as a broad reading, when you’re a struggling side away from home.

That’s only a general marker, of course, without context. After all, United had 54 per cent possession at Gillingham on the opening day and much good that did them in a 4-1 defeat.

A few other statistics, though, at least support the idea that Carlisle were even competitors at the very least against Danny Cowley’s men.

They won more corners (seven to five), their shots forced the home side into more blocks (three to two), they completed nearly 90 more passes than their hosts and delivered more crosses during the game.

Nothing, needless to say, that disturbed the most important numerical column. But a basis that suggested United were, and are potentially becoming, more competitive.

3 – WHAT WAS MISSING

Carlisle are, naturally, a work in progress in these very early days under Williamson, and upon inheriting a losing side, an opening record of W1 D1 L2 is hardly unexpected or glaring from the head coach's first weeks in charge.

The general ratio will need to improve over a longer period if United are to find greater comfort, but it is too soon to be scrutinising patterns in terms of results just yet.

Williamson has drawn some good things from United in phases of games, such as those mentioned above, while there is evidently work to do in other collective and individual departments.

At Colchester, for instance, a single shot on target was insufficient given the way the Blues were, generally, superior for long parts of the first half.

Considering two-thirds of all United’s attempts were in the penalty area, yet six of their nine overall shots were off target, a certain inefficiency was clear enough. And other potential opportunities faded with a final ball that lacked due conviction.

On an individual level, Carlisle are behind where they ought to be in terms of the broad promise of the chances they create.

Williamson is an advocate of xG – expected goals – in terms of analysing the patterns of a game and indeed sequences of them.

So let's look at this column in its various guises. Carlisle’s main striker, Charlie Wyke, is behind his xG for the season so far (two goals from an overall xG of 3.51) while the likes of Josh Vela, Jordan Jones and Harrison Biggins, all of whom one might expect to chip in with a certain tally, are on minus figures here too, with no goals from the chances they've enjoyed.

As a team, prior to Saturday the Blues were rated ninth in the division for the volume and quality of the opportunities they’ve laid on. That they began the day in 22nd in the real table – and are still there – reflects the lack of sharp quality in making the most of those positions.

Another shortcoming on Saturday was United’s struggle in disrupting Colchester when the home side tweaked things at half-time – something that always seemed likely – and got back on top of the Blues.

Danny Cowley’s side became more proactive in intercepting the previously influential line-leading of Charlie Wyke, and Carlisle’s supply to him.

United are not blessed with many game-changing options on the bench right now and, though Williamson did make substitutions fairly early in the second half, there was no alteration in the dynamic of things as Colchester dominated.

It could have cost the Blues a hard-earned point and this must eventually be addressed as part of United’s general evolution.

4 – TEN-GAME MARK

If the ten-game mark is the first decent staging post for a season, what can we say about Carlisle’s start to 2024/25?

Well, they have taken seven points from the first ten league games. This is an exact match of how they started last season, although in 23/24 there were fewer wins (one) and more draws (four).

Had they lost to Colchester it would have been the worst ten-game start, points wise, for a decade, so at least that gloomy stat was avoided.

In terms of defeats, seven is the most United have ever suffered in their first ten league games. So this team shares that unwanted mark with the Blues sides of 1968/69, 1985/86 and 2003/04.

Only five teams in Brunton Park history have endured a worse beginning in terms of their first ten when it comes to points. If we calculate the early years’ results on the modern three-points-for-a-win system for comparison, only Carlisle in 1968/69, 1985/86, 1991/92, 2003/04 and 2014/15 have produced poorer returns by this stage.

This team’s record, meanwhile, is the equal of those in 1960/61, 1962/63, 2001/02 and 2023/24.

Carlisle's record after ten league games is poor and the next ten must show signs of growth (Image: Richard Parkes)

United, when appointing Williamson, said that promotion remains this season’s goal. If that was to occur it would mean a resurgence the like of which we have not seen at Carlisle.

No team in Blues history has started a league campaign with this sort of record, or worse, and then gone up by the end of term.

Pessimistically, on the flipside some have started better but ended up relegated, such as the United sides of 1986/87 (nine points from their first ten games) and 1995/96 (nine points), not to mention the likes of the 1974/75 top-flight team, who began formidably before sliding down.

Statistically, it’s hard to draw much encouragement from Carlisle’s output to this point. At least – small mercies – they no longer have the worst defensive record in the EFL (Portsmouth, with 20 conceded, have that ignominy).

The next ten games, though, must bring more substance in results over the piece, if the early stresses of this campaign are to settle.