What we learned from AFC Wimbledon 4-0 Carlisle United

1 POINTLESS POSSESSION

This game was an object lesson that certain statistics are meaningless without context, and that possession on its own is but a small part of the story.

Carlisle, after all, ended the game in south London with 64 per cent possession.

Nearly two thirds of the game, then, saw the ball in United’s company.

It didn’t feel like that, but anyway. If that number implies an amount of control, the reality exposed that as a cruel myth.

Carlisle, relatively speaking, had plenty of the ball - but that doesn't tell the story of the game (Image: Richard Parkes)

What United did with the sphere was paltry, too much of that possession occurring in Carlisle’s own territory, a painful sight in the first half in particular when the Blues passed it, drew pressure then buckled and snapped the moment it was applied.

Wimbledon raided perfectly, slipping in and out of Carlisle’s danger zone with speed and not a second wasted.

From their relatively inferior “possession”, the Dons engineered 13 shots to Carlisle’s three, more than three times as many touches (23 to seven) in the opposition box, won six corners to two and supplied far more crosses (27 to 14).

Johnnie Jackson’s side played their own game to perfection and, it must be said, did not need to hog the ball in order to do it: a demonstration of the variety that can win League Two games, and the nervous sterility that can lose them.

2 DRY RUN

Carlisle’s goal threat on Saturday was, all in all, pitiful and it is no accident that they have now gone four games without scoring.

That spell, in all competitions, amounts to 423 minutes without disturbing the other team’s net.

The seven-hour barren mark since Dominic Sadi’s goal against Grimsby Town on September 28 was passed at the Cherry Red Records Stadium.

Carlisle last had a four-game scoreless run relatively recently, in March/April 2023. The difference there was that, when United dried up, at least they got a couple of points out of the run, and only lost other games by the odd goal, with two conceded in four.

United went a fourth game in all competitions without scoring (Image: Richard Parkes)

In this four-match sequence they’ve shipped eight goals, the imbalance as stark as ever.

Against our old friends of Harrogate Town next weekend, the Blues clearly have to muster a better response at both ends.

If they remain on the same barren path, failing to find the target against the Sulphurites would make it the worst scoreless run since February-March 2017, when Keith Curle’s Cumbrians went seven games without a goal.

In terms of protecting their net, meanwhile, things are as bad as it gets numerically.

Carlisle once more have the worst defensive record in the EFL, their goals-against total now 23, still conceding on average more than two a game. And their goal difference of -13 is at least six worse than anyone else in their division.

3 WEIGHT OF EXPECTATION

A psychological one, this, and it helps to explain why things are probably feeling bleaker at Carlisle now than at their similarly-struggling peers.

The Blues are level on points with second-bottom Morecambe and a couple behind Accrington Stanley, both of whom have also had bad starts to 2024/25.

It does not, though, take a great deal of thought to imagine that the level of expectation, certainly at one and perhaps both of those clubs, is on a different and lower tier to that at Carlisle right now.

As such, when failure is so stark, so rank, as we’re seeing with the Blues at present, there is little mitigation, little give.

United, we were told by players and rival managers in the summer, were “having a go”. They were offering wages accordingly and signing players that other, lesser-heeled clubs would have liked.

The mood is surely lower at United than at their fellow strugglers right now (Image: Richard Parkes)

An uncommon position for the Blues and one that, when things go against, does little to generate the kind of fighting, scrapping, underdog spirit one might be starting to see elsewhere.

If you are Morecambe, for instance, all concerned know that you’ve had to put almost an entire squad together in pre-season, and with players who might not, with respect, have been on many other clubs' shopping lists.

You know it’s a struggle, an unlikely battle, from day one. So you fight and you have frustrations and agonies, but then you win. And the idea of Morecambe defying the odds, a ragtag band of brothers defeating the odds under Derek Adams, can duly grow.

Accrington have been downwardly-moving for a while now but a side capable of winning at Gillingham has to have a certain amount of guts.

We will discover in due course whether their victory, and Morecambe’s at Barrow, were anomalies or signs of growth.

Expectation at Carlisle, though, was considerably higher this summer, leaving the fall in mood much steeper when we’re seeing what we’re seeing now. There need be no romantic harking back to shabbier times at club level but does this group, this set-up, have the defiance in it that, for instance, Ian Atkins’ side found when up against it in 2000/01?

They’re going to need some of it, whatever else Williamson wishes to introduce and whatever their spending has given us to expect. Otherwise, spirits – and United – will vanish through another floor.

4 A SPECK OF HOPE

The first thing we should do is resist the idea of a saviour complex at Brunton Park.

Clearly Mike Williamson alone isn’t going to execute magic at Carlisle. This is going to be a longer, more gradual turnaround, whenever and however it gets going (soon, please).

On the pitch, too, it would be unfair to load too many expectations and assumptions onto a returning player whose absence has been particularly keenly felt.

Callum Guy deserves a steady reintroduction and not to have his back loaded with too much baggage straight away upon his return from an ACL injury.

At least, in his cameo performance on Saturday, there was an element of what United have been missing and that is something to cling onto to some degree.

Guy’s display, in phases, was like an echo of better times, when Carlisle’s midfield had a certain controlling aspect, a player whose positional instincts are good and who is smart at getting United’s retaliation in early, in terms of ball-retention and its responsible use.

Callum Guy's return to league football was a welcome sight (Image: Richard Parkes)

The context, it should be said, is that Wimbledon were sated by their four goals at that stage, and were not setting Carlisle’s middle ground the same, snappy test as before.

Guy could operate in a less frenzied zone in the last half hour. Yet he still looked sound, and one feels something better can be built around him, should he cope well with the early rigours of his return.

Taylor Charters, on Saturday’s brief evidence, might offer something fresh too, but he also needs the respect of a gradual reintroduction, especially considering his hamstring history.

There is no doubt that Carlisle have been and are missing players who could lift the general operation. Guy is the most obvious and the hope is that, over time, he will drag others up with him, rather than be hauled down into a mess for which over the last 11 months, he has not been responsible.