Reality of Carlisle United's plight couldn't be more serious

That Carlisle campaign, which ended in a bleak nosedive to League One relegation, began with 12 points from the first 11 league games; five more than the current side have mustered in the same period in League Two.

Okay, let’s move on. At least it’s not as bad as 1986/87, the joint worst goalscoring season in United history, a barren fall from the third tier under Harry Gregg. And it isn’t as bad. It’s worse again.

That team? 12 points from the first 11 too. Oh, heck.

How about, say, 1997/98, the post-Mervyn Day unravelling? Nope. Worse. They took 11 points from the first 11. What about, then, 1995/96, the great anti-climax of the Knighton era and another relegation? Nope. Worse. Ten from the first 11.

United’s first-ever drop, in 1962/63? They made a better start than this (two wins, four draws, five defeats). Their first relegation from the second tier, in 1976/77? A better start again (won three, drew four, lost four).

Last season, then. Surely last season! But…no. By the 11-game mark, Paul Simpson’s League One strugglers had one more point than this (eight versus seven). They had also lost three fewer games than 2024/25’s vintage (they’d won one fewer too, but this might not be the time to be brandishing that stat as mitigation).

Even last season started better than this one, points-wise (Image: Richard Parkes)

And yes, a season is of many stages, with many periods that are ripe for improvement and decline. Relegations can be suffered, and promotions won, by a bad or good finish or middle as much as a poor or impressive start.

Yet the latter part is where we are at the moment, and the numbers point, at the very least, to the seriousness of Carlisle’s position, just in case that needed reinforcing to anyone right now.

The Blues, all in all, have been relegated ten times in their Football League history, and it is stark to think that on eight of those occasions they’ve begun the campaign better than this. Only in 1985/86 and 2003/04 have United made a more stumbling beginning, with five points from 11 games each time.

Catch-up time, then. And quickly. What’s also noticeable with some of United’s relegations is a certain context – an assumption, early in the piece, that things wouldn’t be so bad in the end. Circumstances might not be identical but the feeling, in some ways, perhaps tallies.

In 1995/96, for instance, Carlisle failed to strengthen, possibly feeling the boys of 94/95 would be able to maintain enough of their title-winning momentum. The result was a squandered opportunity, a mislaid legacy even, and a relegation that ought to have been avoidable.

I wasn’t watching the Blues in 1976/77 but can’t imagine many were expecting the team to be preparing for life in the third tier just two years after mixing it in the top-flight, even if 75/76 had been underwhelming. United were on a downward trend in the mid-eighties but not many are gloomy enough to predict consecutive relegations, as they suffered from 1985 to 1987.

United's 1995/96 relegation was a great anti-climax when it had been assumed much better things were in reach (Image: News & Star)

Wherever the above existed on the line between confidence and complacency, or something else, we are very much past the point where complacency can remain in play. At the point of Simpson’s departure, United’s owners were still talking about a target of promotion but it seems unlikely that even they would commit the same thoughts to the public domain in light of more recent results and performances.

This is, as Mike Williamson called it this week, a “dog scrap” and all concerned recognising that and embracing its reality is the first step on the way back. Where the head coach is concerned it is also very much about draining every drop from each player and getting the most out of them, regardless of any higher vision.

It is argued in some circles that playing from the back is fundamentally the wrong way for Carlisle given their plight. Instead, they should get it forward, play in the other lot's half, build from there, protect the nil.

It sounds good but it cannot be that simple. What United need to be at present is not wedded to one or the other, but agile enough to adapt. It may be that there are players in the squad ideally tailored to the Williamson way. At such a point they are fit, grooving them into a passing game would be logical, not treacherous.

Carlisle have also, pre-Williamson, tried getting it forward. Check the results on that one. Equally, what we saw at AFC Wimbledon had the feel of the wrong clothes for the wrong people. There was not enough adjustment once it became obvious the home side’s press, muscularity and confidence was too wide a trap for a transitional team trying to play out.

Variety, not dogma, has to be United’s friend. We have seen its benefits in periods of other games – the first half at Colchester United, for instance, when Carlisle went over the opposition midfield more than the Cowleys expected, while in others the presence of a ball-playing midfielder (Dylan McGeouch) has allowed them to move through the thirds better (like in their best period against Grimsby Town).

The road to making United a progressive, drilled group into which you can drop just about anyone and expect them to assimilate is going to be a long one. These are the difficult early days and the best way in the last game might have to be reconsidered for the next one, particularly when nobody in the team or squad is hitting any sort of consistency right now.

It's a long route in every respect, but there can be no assumption of or reliance on jam tomorrow. Carlisle have leaned towards the January window as a panacea before, and look where that got them, and as much as they have talent in the treatment room right now, this squad does not yet have a record of collective success or performance to believe everything will be ok as soon as enough of them are back.

It’s going to be, let’s be honest, a right old struggle, and nothing in how United have started 2024/25 offers a blindfold to the reality. Blinkers off, then, look it straight in the eye, and be prepared to slog, for as long as it takes.