Carlisle United: Does it matter where you sit at Xmas?

It isn’t as emphatic as we’re sometimes guided to think. The Christmas league table is often taken as a significant marker, a pine-needled pointer towards likely outcomes.

If you’re down there come December 25, chances are you’re there for the duration. This narrow viewpoint could cast a nervous fear over Carlisle United’s current position, should they prove unable immediately to improve it. But should it?

Clearly it’s not A Good Thing to be in the League Two relegation zone at Yuletide or any other time. Ideally United will lift themselves out of it today and then go on climbing.

If they remain thereabouts, though, what are the risks? How pessimistic or otherwise should we be?

Let’s have a closer look at the patterns. The below is a reading of all the completed League Two seasons in the era of two relegation places (ie from 2002/03 onwards, not including the Covid-truncated 2019/20). It tells us that it’s not so much where you are at Christmas, but what broad shape you’re in – and, in many cases, more about how you finish than how you start.

GOING DOWN?

Well, yes but…no. And more often no, believe it or not.

Since 2002/03 there have been 21 completed League Two seasons. That means 42 separate occupants of the relegation zone by Christmas.

Of all those, 25 managed to stay up, and 17 went down. That’s surprisingly encouraging data for anyone who finds themselves 23rd or 24th in a few weeks’ time.

A 60 per cent chance of getting out of it? If you’re wedged to the bottom, having barely scraped a small handful of wins together since August, you’d probably take that.

CLIMBING CLEAR

So, good news for those who prefer to see a struggling position as a potential leg-up, rather than a gloomy situation that is set in.

Roughly speaking, the numbers point towards the festive relegation zone often being a place from which teams can scrap and fight their way upwards, at the expense of some anxious others.

There may not be too many examples of bottom-two teams storming up the league from Christmas onwards, but it speaks well of their survival potential that the average finishing position for sides in the drop zone on December 25 is 21st.

Equally, the average Christmas position for a side ultimately relegated is 21st – a neat swap.

None of this implies anything other than a stressful journey ahead, wherever you're sat. And there are ample cases of sides in 23rd and 24th at Christmas staying there. But it does suggest that this is a time when hope should be seized, not abandoned.

ON THE UP

Okay, not like that. There is no case of a side, in this particular era, sitting in the bottom two at Christmas then going on to be promoted, or even making the play-offs.

So whoever is 23rd or 24th by the time the sprouts are doing the rounds may have to make their peace with this being a campaign of more limited horizons, however hopeful they are inclined to be.

There are, though, a few cases of sides finding impressive gusto once the Christmas pudding has been digested.

Take Bury in 2013/14, for instance: 23rd at Christmas, and 12th by the end of the season – a point adrift of safety on December 25, nine clear of danger come the last knockings.

That is the highest climb by position. The next biggest were achieved by Bristol Rovers in 2012/13 and Stevenage in 2020/21, those teams lifting from the bottom two to 14th.

Stevenage’s improvement was the most considerable in terms of relegation risk melting away. By Christmas they were three points adrift of safety. Come the end, a hearty 15 points above the drop line.

When Carlisle smashed Boro 4-0 in December 2020, they looked fit for the relegation zone. What happened next underlined the fact that a season is a thing of many stages, events and upheavals.

LIKE A STONE

Bradford City for the drop this season? Don't laugh (okay, do). They’re tenth, and doing that familiar Bradford-in-League-Two thing of flattering to deceive despite still being up there.

Not much risk of disaster, though. And perhaps that’s what York City thought in 2003/04, when they were also perched comfortably in tenth by Christmas.

York City's season unravelled from a mid-table Christmas position in 2003/04 (Image: PA)

From there, they suffered a plummet to the bottom of the table, a failure to win any of their last 20 games and an absolute belly-flop of a relegation.

Now, the Minstermen had some pained financial issues at that time which those in the middle rump of League Two may not possess. Yet going from 13 points north of trouble to five points adrift of safety is still quite some tumble.

Think too of Macclesfield Town in 2011/12: 15th by Christmas, bottom by the end; 15 points clear to nine adrift.

The broad message: if you think you’re safe at this stage, be careful.

GREAT ESCAPES

If you’re miles from the pack at Christmas, it still doesn’t have to be terminal. Ask Hartlepool United, who were seven below the line on December 25, 2014 but eventually surged to safety by a seven-point margin under Ronnie Moore.

Carlisle nearly did it themselves in 2003/04: the only League Two season when they’ve been in the relegation zone at Christmas in the era of two-down. They were 13 points adrift at that point, and only four short by the end after a Paul Simpson-led revival.

Sides who turned their form from a less distant position can point to certain catalysts, like Bury’s appointment of David Flitcroft in 2013/14, and Bristol Rovers’ improvement under a certain John Ward in 2012/13.

If United’s growing resilience proves durable, and the other pieces can be attached soon, then they could tell their own story of recovery in due course.

With 12 points to play for ahead of the festivities, a platform can either be built or remain at the scaffolding stage come Christmas. And then, in terms of defining this season, it really will be showtime.